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If net income grows and weighted-average diluted shares fall, earnings per share can outgrow revenue.
FY2026 branded postpaid-phone revenue falls below $49.44 billion.
Strong Buy. The report used a $181.69 price on 2026-09-08, below Fair value of $253.05. The main risk is postpaid-phone revenue contraction, which would weaken sales, fixed-cost absorption and cash generation. Strong FY2025 free cash flow is the clearest upside support.34
The Strong Buy rating reflects the report-date price standing below Fair value. Position size and entry pacing remain separate judgments governed by the operating tests set out below.
The report used a $181.69 price from 2026-09-08. Fair value is $253.05, with Potential value of $588.67.3
The main risk is FY2026 branded postpaid-phone revenue below its $49.44 billion FY2025 level. Because the line represented 56.0% of FY2025 revenue, a decline would lower consolidated sales unless other revenue offsets it. Weaker sales could then pressure operating profit and cash generation.56
The case can work because FY2025 free cash flow reached $18.00 billion after $9.96 billion of capital spending. Sustained cash could support shareholder returns and value per share.45
A favorable cycle would combine steady postpaid demand with FY2027 revenue near the $98.60 billion analyst estimate dated 2026-09-09. That would support fixed-cost absorption without requiring margin expansion.1
Strong Buy because the report-date price stands below Fair value, while upside still depends on preserving a concentrated postpaid-phone revenue base.6
A favorable cycle would combine steady postpaid demand with FY2027 revenue near the $98.60 billion analyst estimate dated 2026-09-09. That would support fixed-cost absorption without requiring margin expansion.
Strong Buy because the report-date price stands below Fair value, while upside still depends on preserving a concentrated postpaid-phone revenue base.6
T-MOBILE US, INC. provides wireless communications and broadband services through a variety of service plan options. T-MOBILE US, INC. also offers for sale to customers a wide selection of wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, tablets, 5G broadband gateways and other mobile communication devices that are manufactured by various suppliers.
T-MOBILE US, INC. provides wireless communications and broadband services to a variety of customers needing connectivity, but focus primarily on two categories of customers:
The downside becomes serious when revenue concentration, weaker margins and higher capital needs occur together. Sales and cash would then weaken while refinancing absorbs more of the remaining cash.
T-Mobile’s operating base is the revenue pool supporting consolidated sales and profit. Branded postpaid-phone revenue was $49.44 billion of $88.31 billion in FY2025, or 56.0%. That scale is also concentration, not proof of switching costs, network superiority, cost advantage or regulatory protection. Those structural factors remain unknown from the cited evidence. Direct telecom and adjacent connectivity comparisons therefore constrain the durability assessment.
FY2025 free cash flow was $18.00 billion after $9.96 billion of capital spending. This shows cash remaining after capital spending for that year, but it does not establish durable switching costs or another structural advantage.45
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($253.05). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $17.6B after modeled capex of $10.0B, with terminal value at 72.5% of . A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Outperformance would matter most if revenue and EPS improve together rather than through a temporary cost shift.
Industry capital spending equals 1.05 times depreciation, while T-Mobile spent $9.96 billion in FY2025.5
A favorable cycle would combine steady postpaid demand with FY2027 revenue near the $98.60 billion analyst estimate dated 2026-09-09. That would support fixed-cost absorption without requiring margin expansion.
A weaker cycle would feature slower demand and stronger price responses from direct telecom or bundled-connectivity rivals. That would pressure revenue and customer economics.
No portfolio percentage is prescribed; sizing stays the reader's decision. The $181.69 report-date price is below Fair value of $253.05. However, FY2027 analyst consensus adjusted EPS forecasts dated 2026-09-09 span $11.50-$16.58. Total debt was $120.43 billion as of 2026-09-09. That forecast spread and debt load argue for staged rather than concentrated exposure.13
Do not manage the position from Potential value alone. Track revenue concentration, annual free cash flow, FY2027 EPS and financing costs together.
Fair value exceeds the report-date price, so existing holders can add, while the wide valuation range and revenue concentration argue for staged additions.6
Enter in stages and confirm that postpaid-phone revenue and annual free cash flow remain above their stated thresholds.
FY2025 cash generation supports capital returns, but debt and recurring capital spending can compete for that cash.34
Strong Buy at the $181.69 report-date price, which stands below Fair value of $253.05.3
FY2025 free cash flow supports upside, but branded postpaid-phone revenue was $49.44 billion and FY2025 capital spending was $9.96 billion. Total debt adds another claim on cash, keeping the outcome conditional.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Lower revenue weakens fixed-cost absorption, while higher capital needs leave less cash for dividends, repurchases and debt reduction. The case is disconfirmed if both revenue and cash remain resilient.
FY2026 branded postpaid-phone revenue falls below $49.44 billion, weakening consolidated growth and fixed-cost absorption.56
Competitive pricing or acquisition spending pushes normalized operating margin below 17.7%, reducing profit and cash generation.
Annual free cash flow falls below $13 billion, reducing capacity for dividends, repurchases and debt reduction.45
FY2027 adjusted EPS falls below $11.50, showing that earnings per share failed to grow as expected.1
WACC rises above 6.8574%, reducing the present value of long-duration cash flows.2
FY2030 revenue growth falls below 1.5%, weakening the long-run cash and earnings path.
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
A breach would show that weakness reached a major, concentrated revenue base. Lower sales from that line would slow consolidated growth and weaken fixed-cost absorption.
Current:$49.44 billion in FY2025.
Alert ifBelow $49.44 billion in FY2026.
Lower pricing or higher customer-acquisition spending would leave less operating profit from each revenue dollar and weaken free cash flow.
Current:20.7% normalized path.
Alert ifBelow 17.7% within 18 months.
Less cash after capital spending would shrink the pool available for dividends, repurchases and debt reduction. If persistent, that would weaken capital returns and the lower-share-burden route to per-share value.
Current:$18.00 billion in FY2025.
Alert ifBelow $13 billion in any fiscal year through FY2028.
A result below the dated analyst consensus range would show that adjusted EPS missed even its low-end FY2027 forecast. That would weaken the near-term per-share earnings case.
Current:$13.90 mean analyst consensus adjusted EPS forecast for FY2027, dated and retrieved 2026-09-09.
Alert ifBelow $11.50 for FY2027.
Higher financing costs would reduce the present value of future cash and could divert cash from shareholder returns toward debt service.
Current:5.8574% as of 2026-09-09.
Alert ifAbove 6.8574% within 12 months.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 82.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
This path requires FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS to track analyst consensus forecasts dated 2026-09-09. Annual free cash flow must also stay above the stated threshold. A postpaid-revenue decline or adjusted EPS below the dated analyst consensus range would disconfirm it.146
Upside persists if stable margins and shareholder returns let earnings per share grow faster than revenue. The path fades if cash weakens or the share burden rises.
Results in line would preserve near-term support without proving that stronger earnings growth lasts beyond FY2027.
A miss would weaken the case that stable margins and fewer shares can lift earnings per share faster than revenue.
In FY2025, operating cash flow exceeded net income, while that year also required capital spending. This describes the observed relationship only; it does not establish the durability of earnings or future cash.5
Lower cash after capital spending would constrain shareholder returns and debt reduction.4
The outcome tests whether earnings per share can grow faster than mature revenue.1
| $80.12B |
| $79.57B |
| $78.56B |
| $81.40B |
| $88.31B |
| +2.5% |
| Gross profit | $43.51B | $43.37B | $48.37B | $51.75B | $42.07B | -0.8% |
| Operating income | $6.89B | $6.54B | $14.27B | $18.01B | $18.28B | +27.6% |
| Net income | $3.02B | $2.59B | $8.32B | $11.34B | $10.99B | +38.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.41 | $2.06 | $6.93 | $9.66 | $9.72 | +41.7% |
| EBITDA | $23.08B | $20.16B | $27.15B | $31.04B | $31.31B | +7.9% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | $278.0M | — |
| SG&A | $20.24B | $21.61B | $21.31B | $20.82B | $23.47B | +3.8% |
FY2025 operating cash flow was $27.95 billion, while $9.96 billion of capital spending left $18.00 billion of free cash flow. This establishes cash after capital spending for that year, not its persistence. The FY2025 result does not establish what later years will require.45
Total debt was $120.43 billion as of 2026-09-09, retrieved 2026-09-09T03:15:41+00:00. Strong cash flow supports capital returns, but refinancing needs can compete with dividends, repurchases and network investment.
A directly comparable dated return-on-invested-capital measure is not used, so the direction is not stated.
WACC was 5.8574% as of 2026-09-09; no return spread is asserted.
Fiscal year ended 2025-12-31; retrieved 2026-09-09T12:08:03+00:00.
Cash after network spending can support shareholder returns, provided capital needs do not rise.
1.073 billion end-period shares versus 1.131 billion FY2025 diluted-average shares.
A lower share burden can support earnings per share, but continued reduction remains conditional.
| Revenue | $88,309,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $46,241,000,000 |
| Gross profit | $42,068,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $23,789,000,000 |
| Operating income | $18,279,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$7,287,000,000 |
| Net income | $10,992,000,000 |
| Total assets | $219,237,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $5,598,000,000 |
| Current assets | $24,461,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $160,034,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | $24,500,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $59,203,000,000 |
| Net income | $10,992,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $27,950,000,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $13,508,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $829,000,000 |
| Other operating adjustments | $2,621,000,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $27,950,000,000 |
| Cash available | $33,664,000,000 |
| Beginning cash | $5,713,000,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $1,000,000 |
| Investing outflow | $17,607,000,000 |
| Capex | $9,955,000,000 |
| Other investing activities | $7,652,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $10,081,000,000 |
| Net debt issuance | $4,559,000,000 |
| Share repurchases | $9,974,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | $4,121,000,000 |
| Other financing activities | $545,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $5,976,000,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$17,607,000,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$10,081,000,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by business category | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Postpaid Revenue Phone | $49.4B | 56% | 8% |
| Product Equipment | $16B | 18.1% | 12% |
| Branded Prepaid Revenue | $10.5B | 11.9% | 0.9% |
| Branded Postpaid Revenue Other | $8.5B | 9.6% | 29.1% |
| Wholesale And Other Service Revenue | $2.9B | 3.3% | -16.3% |
| Product And Service Other | $1B | 1.2% | 7.5% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-09-09 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $37.5B | $10.3B | $1.5B | $2.8B | -$1.9B | $4.7B | $6.2B | $235M | $0 | $55M | — | -$2.3B | $463M | — | $5.5B | $5.5B | $24.8B | 10.8% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $40.6B | $10.8B | $4.5B | $3.8B | -$1.4B | $5.2B | $6B | $306M | $427M | $55M | — | -$6.7B | -$1.4B | $5.5B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $30.9B | 12.0% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $43.3B | $11.8B | $2.9B | $3.9B | -$1.6B | $5.5B | $6.5B | $424M | $1.1B | $0 | — | -$579M | -$3.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $15.5B | 12.3% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $45B | $12.4B | $3.5B | $6.8B | $433M | $6.4B | $6.6B | $495M | $0 | $0 | — | -$4.1B | -$2.4B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $25B | 12.7% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $68.4B | $20.4B | $3.1B | $8.6B | -$2.4B | $11B | $14.2B | $694M | $19.5B | $54.1B | — | -$12.7B | $13B | $1.5B | $10.5B | $10.4B | $71.1B | 9.7% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $80.1B | $23.1B | $3B | $13.9B | $1.6B | $12.3B | $16.4B | $540M | $0 | $0 | — | -$19.4B | $1.7B | $10.5B | $6.7B | $6.6B | $74.2B | 8.6% | — | 3.6% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $79.6B | $20.2B | $2.6B | $16.8B | $2.8B | $14B | $13.7B | $595M | $3B | $0 | -$3.1B | -$12.4B | -$6.5B | $6.7B | $4.7B | $4.5B | $72B | 8.2% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $78.6B | $27.2B | $8.3B | $18.6B | $8.8B | $9.8B | $12.8B | $667M | $13.1B | $747M | $2.2B | -$5.8B | -$12.1B | $4.7B | $5.3B | $5.1B | $75B | 18.2% | — | 5.2% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $81.4B | $31B | $11.3B | $22.3B | $13.5B | $8.8B | $12.9B | $649M | $11.2B | $3.3B | $2.1B | -$9.1B | -$12.8B | $5.3B | $5.7B | $5.4B | $78.3B | 22.1% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $88.3B | $31.3B | $11B | $28B | $18B | $10B | $13.5B | $829M | $10B | $4.1B | $4.6B | -$17.6B | -$10.1B | $5.7B | $6B | $5.6B | $86.3B | 20.7% | — | 5.5% | — |
T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) trades at 12.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 9.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.1x compares with a peer median of 7.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications Inc., The Walt Disney Company and Comcast Corporation, as of 2026-09-09.
| Impact |
|---|
| Note |
|---|
| Mature connectivity demand | neutral | The forecast fades revenue growth after FY2027 rather than extending near-term momentum indefinitely. |
T-Mobile enters this phase with a large postpaid-phone base and strong FY2025 cash generation, but those strengths remain exposed to recurring network spending.46
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Limitation: Terminal value is 72.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
| Verizon Communications Inc. |
| 9.5x |
| 1.5x |
| 7.9x |
| 15.8% |
| 23.0% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 14.1x | 1.8x | 10.9x | 8.0% | 19.3% |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corporation | 7.3x | 0.7x | 5.2x | 11.5% | 17.2% |
