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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
WM — frequently asked questions
Is Waste Management, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-27, WM looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 207 versus our fair value of USD 152; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 176. That implies roughly 26.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, gives WM a fair value of USD 152 and a potential value of USD 176. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Waste Management, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy WM now?
Our latest published rating for WM, analyzed 2026-09-27, is Sell. Waste Management, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 207 versus fair value of USD 152; potential value is USD 176. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for WM?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-27 documents Waste Management, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is WM's rating?
Our latest published rating for WM, analyzed 2026-09-27, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 152, the potential value of USD 176, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 207).
Rapid execution of Healthcare Solutions overhead synergies from >24% toward 15%-16%, combined with post-2026 capital expenditure normalization from $3,227M toward sustaining levels, which would drive free cash flow and lift equity value toward our Potential value of $176.35.
Main risk
Commercial collection volumes decelerate below -2.0% year-over-year while sustainability plant delays create over $150M in annualized volume headwinds.
Waste Management carries a Sell rating as its share price of $206.83 on September 25, 2026 trades 35.7% above our Fair value of $152.44, leaving an upside of -26.3% despite the company's premier franchise quality.4
We assign a Sell rating to Waste Management. For an ordinary investor, this rating means the shares are substantially overvalued relative to cash-generation fundamentals, indicating that capital should be preserved by liquidating existing holdings or avoiding new commitments rather than adding to positions.
The report was prepared at a price of $206.83 on September 25, 2026. This price sits well above both our Fair value of $152.44, which represents -26.3% upside, and our Potential value of $176.35. Even under optimistic operating execution, the market price commands an unsustainable premium over the upper boundary of our valuation range.4
The primary risk that justifies downside concern is that ongoing commercial collection volume softness and multi-year delays in commissioning renewable natural gas plants could keep capital expenditures structurally elevated near $3,227M while operating margin compresses below 16.5%, eroding free cash flow conversion and triggering valuation multiple de-rating.5,7
The strongest operational driver supporting the business is the company's irreplaceable permitted landfill network and route density, which allows core collection pricing yield to outpace inflation and expands operating margins from 17.09% toward our Potential value outcome of $176.35 if Healthcare Solutions synergies reach guided targets.5,7,8
Irreplaceable Landfill Monopoly Network
Ownership of scarce permitted solid waste disposal sites generated $25,545M in Collection and Disposal revenue in FY2025. Regulatory restrictions make new landfill development nearly impossible, ensuring durable pricing power across both the East Tier ($11,482M revenue) and West Tier ($10,900M revenue).8
Healthcare Solutions Margin Synergy Potential
The acquisition of Stericycle provides substantial overhead reduction opportunity, with management guiding segment SG&A down from >24% to 15%-16% of revenue. On $2,951M in FY2025 Healthcare Solutions revenue, this rationalization unlocks $240M to $265M in high-margin operating profit flow-through.5,8
Waste Management is rated Sell because its share price of $206.83 on September 25, 2026 commands an excessive 35.7% valuation premium over its intrinsic Fair value of $152.44 that leaves an upside of -26.3% despite wide-moat landfill assets.4
Company overview
WASTE MANAGEMENT INC offers expansive learning and development solutions to meet the development needs of its people and support opportunities for growth and improvement. Its talent management strategy is designed to reach employees at all levels. Its Healthcare Solutions segment, through its subsidiary Stericycle, is primarily a business-to-business company providing RWCS and SID services that protect people and brands, promote health and well-being and safeguard the environment. Healthcare Solutions serves customers in the U.S., Canada and Western Europe with solutions to safely manage materials that could otherwise spread disease, contaminate the environment or compromise one’s identity. Services provided through its Healthcare Solutions segment includes the following:
While the Healthcare Solutions businesses manage large volumes of waste and other materials, the average volume per customer site is relatively small.
Under a persistent stagflation scenario, commercial waste volumes contract as corporate activity slows, while fleet maintenance, yellow-iron equipment, and labor inflation exceed CPI-linked contract escalators. In FY2025, WM generated $4,308M in operating income on $25,204M in revenue (17.09% EBIT margin). If operating margins contract by 300 basis points below 16.0% and RNG commissioning delays persist, sustaining capex requirements of $3,227M against $23,356M in total debt severely constrain discretionary cash flow. Under the forward earnings bear case model, EPS growth falls to 5.0% and contract to 16.0x, compressing equity value toward $93.73.
Waste Management possesses a wide economic moat rooted in its irreplaceable network of permitted solid waste landfills and unrivaled route density across North America. Obtaining regulatory permits for new landfill capacity has become virtually impossible due to stringent environmental regulations and pervasive community opposition. As a result, WM's existing disposal airspace functions as critical, scarce infrastructure. In FY2025, Collection and Disposal operations generated $25,545M in revenue, underscoring the massive operational scale anchored by its disposal footprint. This infrastructure creates natural local monopolies across defined waste sheds, allowing WM to internalize its own collected waste while charging lucrative tipping fees to independent haulers who lack disposal alternatives.
The company's cost advantage is reinforced by exceptional route density across its two primary operational regions, with the East Tier generating $11,482M and the West Tier generating $10,900M in FY2025 revenue. By concentrating commercial, industrial, and residential stops within compact geographic corridors, WM minimizes drive time, fuel consumption, and vehicle wear per stop. This operational efficiency is reflected in FY2025 operating income of $4,308M on $25,204M in revenue, representing a 17.09% margin, which substantially exceeds the broader industry benchmark of 14.9% and peer CMI at 11.9%.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($152.44). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Upgrade the rating; Re-examine operating margin expansion velocity and assess whether accelerated debt paydown justifies lifting the valuation ceiling before altering portfolio exposure.
Trigger: Consolidated revenue and diluted earnings per share exceed consensus expectations, driven by Collection and Disposal yield outperformance and accelerated Healthcare Solutions integration.
An operational beat driven by organic volume recovery, higher tipping fee yield, and accelerated cross-selling would narrow the gap between market valuation and Fair value $152.44, narrowing the projected downside -26.3% toward Potential value $176.35.
In-line
Maintain Sell; Maintain disciplined risk controls, avoid deploying new capital, and track quarterly debt reduction milestones.
Trigger: Revenue and match , with Collection and Disposal pricing offsetting softer commercial volumes while SG&A rationalization tracks planned timelines.
Environmental services industry capex-to-revenue is 13.4% and capex-to-depreciation is 1.1x. Waste Management's FY2025 capital expenditures reached $3,227M following $3,231M in FY2024, representing 12.8% of revenue and 1.13x depreciation of $2,863M. This reflects a multi-year peak investment wave in RNG plants and automated recycling facilities.7
Bull cycle
In an industrial expansion, non-residential construction and industrial manufacturing drive higher waste volumes across East and West tiers ($11,482M and $10,900M FY2025 revenue). High disposal capacity utilization expands pricing yield above 5%, while completed RNG plants capture premium environmental credits and automated recycling facilities benefit from firming OCC commodity prices above $70/ton, driving operating margin beyond 18.5%.
§11 Position management
Sizing
0%
Given the Sell rating and the significant premium of the market price ($206.83 as of 2026-09-25) over compositeFair value ($152.44), no portfolio allocation is warranted. Existing positions should be trimmed or liquidated, and no new capital should be committed.4
Risk
Waste Management carries $23,356M in total debt, requiring disciplined debt paydown to protect its credit rating. With $1.8B maturing in Year 1 against a 6.18% pre-tax cost of debt, refinancing at prevailing interest rates increases interest expense. Portfolio risk management dictates full elimination of exposure at extended multiples (22.52x forward P/E) to protect capital against multiple mean reversion toward peer averages of 17.44x.
§12 Investor perspectives
Institutional Total Return
Avoid
At $206.83 on September 25, 2026, WM trades at 22.52x forward P/E against peer averages of 17.44x. With -26.3% upside to our Fair value of $152.44, prospective risk-adjusted returns do not justify institutional capital allocation.4
Income & Dividend Growth
Avoid
While WM's dividend is supported by $6,043M in operating cash flow, elevated capital expenditures of $3,227M and $23,356M in total debt limit dividend growth acceleration, while capital depreciation risk outweighs the modest dividend yield.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Sell
Waste Management is a premier franchise trading at $206.83 on September 25, 2026, which reflects an unjustified 35.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.44 (-26.3% upside). Investors should reduce exposure and reallocate capital.4
While the company's permitted landfill network provides robust economic insulation, current trading at 22.52x forward earnings already prices in flawless execution on Healthcare Solutions synergies and leaves no margin of safety against elevated capex of $3,227M and total debt of $23,356M.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-27 · Published 2026-09-27 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Bear case
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-09-27 · Published 2026-09-27 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in Competitive moat, Industry & cycle, Bear case
Market dataData covering 2025-12-31 to 2026-09-27 · cited for 5 figuresCited in Executive summary
Capital expenditures of $3,227M in FY2025 represent peak outlays in automated recycling and renewable natural gas plants. As growth projects commission, capex is expected to step down toward sustaining levels, expanding free cash flow beyond the $2,816M recorded in FY2025.6,7
Commercial waste volumes experience prolonged attrition from corporate customer losses.
Integration friction delays cost synergies while capital intensity remains elevated.
The downside scenario reflects the risk of structural margin compression and franchise multiple de-rating. If commercial customer losses accelerate and equipment, fuel, and wage inflation outstrip CPI-linked escalators, operating profitability would erode while capital outlays remain elevated. Furthermore, delays in commissioning renewable natural gas plants and connecting to utility pipelines would delay expected free cash flow expansion. Investors would recognize this outcome through consecutive quarterly margin contractions and sustained elevated capital expenditures through FY2026, forcing valuation multiples toward broader industrial averages.
Ways this thesis can break
Franchise multiple de-rating toward industrial peer average as organic volume growth stagnates and capex remains elevated.
WM trades at 22.52x forward P/E while peer median forward P/E is 17.44x and peer CMI trades at 15.16x. Multiple contraction in forward_earnings from 20.0x to 16.0x de-rates equity value toward peer norms.3,4
FV impact
-5.9%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 12 months
Persistent labor and equipment cost inflation outpacing price escalators combined with delays in Healthcare Solutions integration synergies.
Operating income was $4,308M on $25,204M revenue in FY2025 (17.09% EBIT margin). If operating cost inflation in equipment, fuel, and wages exceeds contract escalators and synergy execution stalls, operating margin falls below 16.0%.7
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Macroeconomic industrial slowdown triggering commercial volume contraction and multi-year delays in RNG plant revenue generation.
Consensus FY2027 EPS estimate of $9.12 assumes 12.19% year-over-year expansion. Under commercial volume losses and RNG commissioning delays, EPS growth drops to the 5.0% bear path with forward_earnings value falling to $93.73.1,5
FV impact
-3.6%
The analyst's bear scenario path and multiple as the base case
Trigger
Within 24 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
01
operating_margin
Operating cost inflation in wages, fleet parts, and fuel outpacing contractual escalators, compressing core collection and disposal EBIT margins.
Current:17.09% in FY2025
Alert if< 16.50% for two consecutive fiscal quarters
In addition to core collection and disposal, WM has expanded its reach into specialized regulated waste through its Healthcare Solutions segment ($2,951M FY2025 revenue). Medical waste collection requires specialized transport permits, tracking protocols, and dedicated treatment infrastructure, creating high customer switching costs for hospitals and clinics. Management is executing an overhead rationalization program targeting Healthcare Solutions SG&A reduction from above 24% toward 15%-16% of revenue, with $32M in cross-selling synergies already captured toward the $50M target. This self-help synergy realization strengthens the competitive moat across specialized waste verticals.
Economic profit durability is evidenced by return on invested capital of ~11.2%, generating a wide spread above the company's 7.012% WACC and moderate Ke of 7.6305%. Even during the peak of its strategic capital reinvestment cycle, where FY2025 capex reached $3,227M, WM generated $2,816M in free cash flow and normalized owner earnings of $3,312M. These structural attributes justify a Wide moat rating with a stable trajectory over a 15-year competitive advantage horizon.
Waste Management generates sustained economic profit above its cost of capital through its pricing power and disposal airspace scarcity. In FY2025, operating profit of $4,308M produced returns on capital well above its 7.012% WACC. Although sustaining capital requirements are substantial ($3,227M capex in FY2025), normalized owner earnings of $3,312M demonstrate strong underlying cash generation across economic cycles.2,7
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Irreplaceable Permitted Landfill Network (Intangible Assets & Regulatory Licensure) — Ownership of scarce permitted disposal capacity across North America provides irreplaceable disposal infrastructure. In FY2025, Collection and Disposal generated $25,545M in revenue, supported by intense NIMBY resistance and stringent state and federal environmental zoning that prevent new competing landfill construction.Wide
02Collection Route Density and Fleet Scale (Cost Advantage) — High customer density across East Tier ($11,482M revenue in FY2025) and West Tier ($10,900M revenue in FY2025) minimizes transit stem time and operating cost per container stop, creating scale advantages that local haulers cannot replicate.Wide
03Disposal Airspace Scarcity (Efficient Scale) — Local geographic waste sheds can economically support only a limited number of transfer stations and landfills, giving WM natural local monopolies. In FY2025, WM captured third-party tipping fees while maintaining a 17.09% operating margin, compared to industrial peer CMI at 11.90%.Wide
04Long-Term Municipal Contracts and Regulated Compliance (Switching Costs) — Multi-year municipal franchise agreements and long-term commercial contracts embed CPI-linked price escalation clauses, insulating revenue streams. In Healthcare Solutions ($2,951M FY2025 revenue), strict regulatory compliance requirements for biohazard and medical waste handling create meaningful customer switching barriers.Moderate
Operating cost inflation in equipment, diesel, and maintenance wages outpacing contractual price adjustments.
medium
12-18 months
Contractual CPI-linked escalation mechanisms in municipal franchises and core pricing discipline across commercial accounts, with Collection and Disposal yield tracking toward the high end of guidance.5
Integration delays and operational friction within Healthcare Solutions (Stericycle) impeding synergy capture.
medium
18-24 months
Dedicated integration management office executing standardized route optimization and corporate overhead reductions from >24% toward 15%-16%.5
Delays in renewable natural gas (RNG) plant commissioning and utility pipeline interconnects deferring project returns.
low
12-24 months
Active resolution of pipeline interconnect bottlenecks and absorption of the $75M volume impact in FY2026 guidance as renewable gas plants complete commissioning.5
Healthcare Solutions SG&A expense ratio rationalizes toward guided operating targets over the medium term.
Capital expenditures moderate from peak investment levels as renewable gas facilities connect into utility networks.
The base scenario projects steady earnings expansion supported by landfill pricing power and disciplined cost execution, yielding an expected target of $152.44 with a probability of 60.0% and an expected return of -26.3% relative to $206.83. For this path to hold, Collection and Disposal yields must continue to offset mild commercial volume softness, while post-acquisition synergies materialize on schedule. This trajectory would be disconfirmed if core operating margins compress across two consecutive fiscal quarters or if integration overhead remains elevated through FY2026, signaling that route density and pricing power are failing to overcome inflation.
Renewable natural gas plants commission ahead of schedule with elevated commodity prices.
Healthcare Solutions cross-selling and administrative overhead reductions accelerate significantly.
Automated recycling facilities drive substantial labor efficiencies and higher material recovery margins.
The bull scenario envisions accelerated operating margin expansion and rapid free cash flow conversion, leading to Potential value $176.35 and a target of $176.35 with a probability of 15.0% and a return of -14.7% compared to $206.83. This outcome requires swift completion of pipeline interconnections, rapid realization of overhead synergies across Healthcare Solutions, and robust recovery in commercial waste volumes. The scenario would be disconfirmed by the end of FY2026 if sustainability volumes remain impaired or if organic volume growth turns negative.
Inline operating execution validates existing baseline forecasts but leaves the substantial premium of $206.83 above Fair value $152.44 intact, confirming that market expectations remain overly optimistic.
Miss
Maintain Sell; Conduct an immediate review of commercial volume retention and accelerate capital reallocation away from extended valuation multiples.
Trigger: Operating margins contract as cost inflation outpaces contractual escalators, or commercial volume attrition accelerates alongside further pipeline interconnection delays.
A quarterly earnings miss would confirm that high capital expenditures and cost pressures are eroding free cash flow, accelerating valuation convergence toward Fair value $152.44 from $206.83.
Earnings quality is supported by recurring cash flow from essential collection and disposal services, with cash collections tracking operating earnings consistently. Working capital requirements remain disciplined across billing cycles, and operating profit reflects genuine cash generation rather than accrual adjustments. The durability of reported operating profit is anchored by multi-year municipal contracts and disposal airspace utilization, though high ongoing fleet replacement expenditures require vigilant monitoring to ensure reported operating cash flows translate fully into distributable cash.
Metrics to watch into the print
01
Metric:
Core Collection and Disposal Pricing Yield
CurrentTracking toward the upper boundary of full-year management guidance across municipal and commercial lines.
Why it matters
Pricing yield above underlying operating inflation ensures core margin durability and sustains operating profit compounding across regional networks.
Waste Management demonstrates exceptional cash flow visibility, generating $6,043M in operating cash flow in FY2025 on $25,204M in revenue. FY2025 capital expenditures remained elevated at $3,227M following $3,231M in FY2024, reflecting the crest of outlays for RNG and MRF automation. Despite peak reinvestment, free cash flow was robust at $2,816M. In our primary Owner Earnings model, sustaining maintenance capex is calibrated at 70% of total capex ($2,258.9M), producing normalized owner earnings of $3,312.1M ($8.29 per share) based on $2,708M net income and $2,863M D&A. This supports the Owner Earnings midpoint of $165.72, which carries a 65% weighting in our composite valuation.2,6,7
Waste Management carries $22,907M in total debt as of year-end 2025 and $23,356M as of September 2026 against cash of $201M, following the debt-financed Stericycle acquisition. Debt service is underpinned by a 6.18% pre-tax cost of debt. Management has established a proven track record of rapid deleveraging toward targeted leverage bands, similar to the post-Advanced Disposal Services integration. Diluted share count has decreased from 406.9M in FY2023 to 404.2M in FY2025 and 399.7M shares as of September 2026, demonstrating disciplined capital return alongside required debt retirement.
Waste Management consistently generates returns on invested capital well above its cost of capital, reflecting durable disposal pricing power and route density. As high-outlay sustainability projects complete and Healthcare Solutions synergies lower segment SG&A toward 15%-16%, ROIC should expand further.
Spread of approximately +419 bps, with ROIC of ~11.2% well above the 7.012% WACC and moderate Ke of 7.6305%.
Peak Capital Intensity Masks Normalized Free Cash Flow Power
Total debt stands at $23,356M with $1.8B in near-term maturities against a 6.18% pre-tax cost of debt.
Operating cash flows must prioritize debt paydown to return to targeted leverage bands, constraining discretionary share repurchases.
Healthcare Solutions Synergies Provide Visible Operating Margin Tailwinds
Healthcare Solutions SG&A is guided to decline from >24% to 15%-16% on $2,951M segment revenue.
Capturing guided overhead efficiencies directly injects $240M to $265M into consolidated EBIT, underpinning margin expansion toward 17.5% in FY2026 and 18.0% in FY2027.
Waste Management Inc. (WM) trades at 22.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.6x compares with a peer median of 15.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Emerson Electric Co., General Dynamics Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation and Cummins Inc., as of 2026-09-27.
Bear cycle
In an industrial downturn, commercial collection and industrial roll-off volumes contract, compounding national account customer losses. Commissioning delays across sustainability assets reduce revenue contributions by $75M, while fleet equipment and labor inflation keep sustaining capex elevated, depressing operating margins below 16.5%.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Stringent Landfill Permitting and Regulatory Scarcity
positive
Intense environmental permitting oversight and community NIMBY resistance prevent new landfill construction, increasing the scarcity value and pricing power of WM's permitted disposal airspace across North America.
Landfill Methane Capture and Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Transition
positive
Converting landfill methane into pipeline-quality Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) enables high-margin energy monetization, although near-term pipeline interconnection friction created a temporary $75M volume headwind.
Outsourced Regulated Waste and Healthcare Compliance
positive
Expanding regulatory requirements for biohazard and medical waste handling increase demand for specialized disposal services ($2,951M FY2025 Healthcare Solutions revenue), supporting 800-900 bps of SG&A rationalization toward 15%-16%.
Positioning
Waste Management is the premier North American environmental services corporation, generating $25,545M in Collection and Disposal operations in FY2025. Its 17.09% GAAP operating margin significantly outperforms the broader industry benchmark of 14.9% and peer CMI at 11.9%. WM's massive landfill ownership provides an unassailable structural barrier that insulates it from volume fluctuations better than non-landfill owning peers.3,7,8
Entry tranches
Level
Action
Why
$152.44 (Composite Fair Value Midpoint)
Conduct fundamental re-assessment
At the Fair value midpoint of $152.44, market price would reflect normalized owner earnings of $165.72 and forward earnings of $127.78, removing the current multiple distortion.
Evaluate initial staged accumulation
Exit tranches
Level
Action
$206.83 (Analysis Price)
Liquidate existing holdings immediately
$223.77 - $225.06 (50-Day and 200-Day Moving Average Confluence)
With the stock trading above even our Potential value ceiling of $176.35, valuation symmetry is sharply skewed downward. A multiple de-rating toward industrial peer levels would trigger swift multiple contraction toward our fair value range.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
