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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
ZION — frequently asked questions
Is Zions Bancorporation, National Association overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-15, ZION looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 61.8 versus our fair value of USD 73.6; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 119. That implies roughly 19.1% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-15, gives ZION a fair value of USD 73.6 and a potential value of USD 119. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Zions Bancorporation, National Association's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy ZION now?
Our latest published rating for ZION, analyzed 2026-10-15, is Buy. Zions Bancorporation, National Association looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 61.8 versus fair value of USD 73.6; potential value is USD 119. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for ZION?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-15 documents Zions Bancorporation, National Association's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is ZION's rating?
Our latest published rating for ZION, analyzed 2026-10-15, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 73.6, the potential value of USD 119, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 61.8).
The most compelling opportunity lies in the bank's asset sensitivity under sustained or rising interest rate curves, where variable-rate commercial loan repricing lifts net interest income by approximately one percent per twenty-five basis point rate shock, accelerating earnings compounding toward Potential value of $119.01.
Main risk
Commercial depositors shifting noninterest-bearing demand balances into higher-yielding interest-bearing accounts or peer money market instruments.
We assign a Buy rating to Zions Bancorporation N.A., as the shares trade at $61.78 as of $61.78 (as of 2026-10-14), offering 19.1% upside to our Fair value of $73.60.
Our Buy rating indicates that Zions Bancorporation N.A. offers attractive risk-adjusted total return potential for long-term investors. At $61.78 as of $61.78 (as of 2026-10-14), the equity trades at a meaningful discount to our Fair value of $73.60, with additional upside toward Potential value of $119.01 if balance sheet asset sensitivity delivers upper single-digit net interest income growth.
The stock traded at $61.78, offering 19.1% upside to our central Fair value estimate of $73.60. If favorable macroeconomic conditions and disciplined overhead management persist, the shares could appreciate toward our Potential value of $119.01.
The primary risk that would challenge this thesis is severe deposit beta escalation and noninterest-bearing deposit migration into higher-yielding accounts. If competitive deposit pricing intensifies across Western regional markets, funding cost inflation would compress net interest margins, while potential distress in commercial real estate portfolios could force elevated credit loss provisions, dampening earnings per share growth.4
The core engine of upside is the bank's asset-sensitive loan portfolio and positive operating leverage. Reinvestment of maturing assets at higher prevailing yields drives net interest income expansion, while enterprise efficiency initiatives keep noninterest expense growth disciplined. This operating spread expands operating profit and accelerates net income compounding toward our Fair value of $73.60.4
Disciplined overhead containment and centralized digital infrastructure support management's guidance of positive operating leverage, driving operating margins toward thirty-six percent.4
House recommendation
We rate Zions Bancorporation N.A. a Buy because its asset-sensitive balance sheet and disciplined operating leverage support robust earnings expansion toward our Fair value of $73.60.
Company overview
Zions Bancorporation N.A. is a prominent financial holding company delivering comprehensive commercial banking, retail banking, and capital markets solutions across the Western United States. The institution provides customized financing to help business clients raise capital efficiently, manage strategic transactions, and mitigate financial market exposures.
The bank operates through seven separately managed affiliate banking charters supported by centralized enterprise technology, risk management, and governance. This decentralized community banking framework fosters localized relationship management and credit underwriting across key regional economies including Utah, Idaho, Texas, and California, which collectively account for seventy-seven percent of commercial lending and seventy-one percent of consumer lending.
In a severe macroeconomic stress scenario combining rapid monetary easing with regional credit distress, Zions Bancorporation faces compounding headwinds across revenue, efficiency, and capital cost. If the Federal Reserve rapidly cuts benchmark interest rates while commercial depositors continue shifting from noninterest-bearing demand accounts into higher-yielding instruments, net interest margin would compress below the 2.65% danger threshold. Concurrently, software maintenance and vendor inflation would cause operating leverage to turn negative, breaching management guidance of 100 to 150 basis points of positive leverage. In addition, refinancing friction across Western commercial property portfolios could trigger elevated nonperforming assets and surge credit loss provisions, driving annual diluted EPS below $5.00 compared to reported FY2025 EPS of $6.01. Under this compound shock, return on equity would contract toward single digits, and elevated liquidity risk would expand the toward 10.18%, severely compressing equity valuation.
Zions Bancorporation possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by durable commercial customer switching costs and a granular regional deposit funding advantage across key Western metropolitan markets. The company operates through seven separately managed affiliate bank brands, including Zions Bank, Amegy Bank, and California Bank and Trust, rather than as a monolithic national institution. This decentralized structure empowers local credit officers and treasury management teams to cultivate deeply entrenched relationships with middle-market enterprises, commercial real estate developers, and municipal entities. For commercial clients, migrating complex operational accounts, integrated cash management workflows, credit lines, and merchant processing to competing institutions entails significant operational disruption and transition friction, establishing reliable relationship stickiness.
The durability of this economic moat is demonstrated by Zions' ability to generate returns on equity that consistently cover its cost of capital. Normalized returns on equity of 10% to 12% exceed the moderate cost of equity of 8.1849% derived from a 5.21% risk-free rate, a 4.20% equity risk premium, and an adjusted of 0.7083. While super-regional peers such as Citizens Financial Group (CFG) with an of $30.9B and an of 35.13% exert vigorous competitive pressure across loan pricing, Zions' localized franchise equity insulates core relationship deposits. The trend is assessed as stable, as enterprise investments in modern digital banking architecture offset industry-wide deposit disintermediation pressures.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($73.60). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Commercial banking capital intensity is structurally low, with industry capex to revenue at -1.3% and Zions reporting FY2025 capex of $121M against operating cash flow of $1,073M. Detailed industry capacity, supply, and lead-time data are evidence-limited, making the cycle view predominantly demand-led and monetary policy-driven.7
Bull cycle
A cyclical upswing is driven by sustained higher-for-longer interest rates and resilient commercial economic activity across the Western United States. Variable-rate commercial loans reprice upward, generating upper single-digit net interest income growth and approximately 1% net interest income lift per 25 basis point parallel rate increase. Robust commercial loan origination paired with disciplined operating leverage of 100 to 150 basis points expands operating margin and lifts toward cyclical highs.
§11 Position management
Sizing
3-4%
A moderate position weight reflects the bank's asset-sensitive earnings upside and disciplined efficiency gains, balanced against deposit beta headwinds and regional commercial real estate considerations.
Risk
Risk management focuses on monitoring commercial real estate asset quality, deposit funding costs, and regulatory capital ratios across affiliate banking charters.
Entry tranches
Level
Action
Why
Disciplined entry on market pullbacks
Initiate initial core allocation tranche
§12 Investor perspectives
Value Investor
Buy
The stock trades at $61.78 as of $61.78 (as of 2026-10-14), offering 19.1% upside to our Fair value of $73.60, providing a substantial valuation discount backed by tangible earnings power.
Income and Dividend Investor
Buy
The bank maintains an established regular dividend payout backed by strong operating cash flows and sustainable capital generation.4
Growth and Momentum Investor
Hold
While balance sheet asset sensitivity drives upper single-digit revenue growth, deposit beta competition and regional commercial credit headwinds may moderate intermediate expansion.
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Buy
We recommend a Buy rating on Zions Bancorporation N.A. based on an attractive 19.1% upside from the analysis price of $61.78 to our central Fair value of $73.60.
Upside is driven by the bank's asset-sensitive loan portfolio and positive operating leverage across its Western regional banking franchises, which generate durable operating cash flow and resilient return on equity.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-15 · Published 2026-10-15 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 4 figuresCited in Bear case, Financial history
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-10-15 · Published 2026-10-15 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in Competitive moat, Industry & cycle
Seven separately managed affiliate banks provide localized decision-making and deep middle-market commercial ties across Western markets, defending customer relationships and maintaining strong deposit retention.
Surge in commercial real estate loan loss provisions
A downside path develops if commercial deposit competition accelerates noninterest-bearing deposit outflows into high-cost funding, while softening commercial property credit quality necessitates substantial provisioning increases. Under these conditions, net interest margins compress, operating leverage turns negative, and earnings growth stalls.
Noninterest-bearing deposits continue rapid runoff into interest-bearing accounts as confirmed by CFO Richards, while vendor cost escalation causes positive operating leverage to reverse, collapsing FY2026-FY2027 earnings growth to near zero.4
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Commercial Real Estate Credit Shock and Regulatory Capital Retention
Western regional commercial property distress triggers elevated charge-offs and forces credit provisions to surge, pulling diluted EPS sharply below FY2025 reported $6.01 and consensus FY2026 $6.57, triggering terminal multiple compression.1,7
FV impact
-7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Sustained Cost of Capital Surge from Systemic Regional Banking Stress
Regional banking funding strain and liquidity risk widen the equity risk premium and levered beta beyond the moderate 8.1849% Ke and strict 8.67% Ke, compressing present value across all equity valuation models.2
FV impact
-19.5%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
01
Net Interest Margin
Accelerated migration of noninterest-bearing deposits into interest-bearing time accounts, compressing asset repricing benefits.
Structural switching costs in middle-market commercial banking and regional core deposits support returns on equity of 10-12% that exceed the moderate cost of equity of 8.1849%, justifying a narrow moat rating with a score of 6.0 and a 5-year competitive fade period.2
6/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs — Decentralized subsidiary operating charters including Zions Bank ($155M FY2025 revenue) and Amegy Bank ($138M FY2025 revenue) foster deep middle-market commercial lending and treasury ties that create high client switching barriers.Moderate
02Cost Advantage — A dense branch network across high-growth Western states provides a granular core relationship deposit base that lowers overall funding costs relative to wholesale funding, despite near-term deposit mix competition.Moderate
Commercial loan expansion accelerates across Western affiliate footprint
The constructive path carries a 20.0% probability and projects a target value of $119.01, representing an implied return of 92.6% above $61.78. In this outcome, sustained monetary tightening accelerates variable-rate loan yields, robust economic activity across Western markets drives strong middle-market credit demand, and technological efficiencies widen operating margins.
Normalizing credit provisions and stable commercial deposit retention
Our modal path carries a 55.0% probability and indicates a target value of $73.60, delivering an implied return of 19.1% from the analysis price of $61.78. This path is supported by upper single-digit net interest income growth as commercial loans reprice, positive operating leverage of one hundred to one hundred fifty basis points, and manageable credit provisions across Western regional franchises.
In-line
Maintain Buy; Maintain position allocation and monitor commercial deposit retention and credit provisioning at quarterly checkpoints.
Earnings quality is anchored by recurring net interest income and commercial banking fee streams across regional affiliate charters. Operating cash generation tracks underlying net income closely, and reported earnings exclude non-operating windfalls to reflect core operational performance.
Estimate momentum
Consensus earnings estimates for FY2026 experienced downward revisions over the thirty-day window as analysts adjusted for higher deposit funding betas and competitive repricing dynamics across regional peers.
Metrics to watch into the print
01
Metric:
Net Interest Margin Trajectory
CurrentManagement anticipates constructive yield benefits from prevailing interest rate conditions.
Why it matters
Asset sensitivity drives loan repricing; expansion directly enhances top-line revenue and operating return per share.
In FY2025, Zions generated $1,073M in operating cash flow and $952M in free cash flow, demonstrating strong cash conversion, defined as the operational conversion of GAAP net income into operating cash flow, with operating cash flow of $1,073M representing 119% of GAAP net income of $899M. Cash flow in commercial banking reflects operational earnings adjusted for working capital and non-cash provisions rather than physical asset turnover. Capital expenditures were modest at $121M, resulting in strong unencumbered cash generation to support organic loan growth, reserve requirements, and capital distributions.5,7
Zions maintains a balanced capital allocation strategy prioritizing regulatory capital adequacy, loan portfolio reinvestment, and direct shareholder capital returns. The bank pays an annualized dividend of $1.92 per share and conducts regular share repurchases. Capital expenditures of $121M in FY2025 comfortably exceeded depreciation of $116M, reflecting targeted investment in core banking software and cybersecurity infrastructure. Management affirmed that sustained economic expansion and operating plan execution will enable incremental increases in capital repatriation to shareholders.
Zions' return profile is improving as asset repricing lifts net interest yield and operating leverage expands operating margins toward 36.0%. Reported FY2025 diluted EPS of $6.01 is projected by consensus to expand to $6.57 in FY2026 and $6.82 in FY2027, reflecting compounding earnings capacity.
Normalized returns on equity of 10% to 12% comfortably exceed the moderate cost of equity of 8.1849% and the strict cost of equity of 8.67%, generating positive economic value spread.
Management guided for upper single-digit net interest income growth into 2Q27 based on balance sheet asset sensitivity, supported by consensus FY2026 revenue of $3,619M and FY2027 revenue of $3,717M.
Variable-rate loan repricing generates robust top-line momentum, expanding net interest income faster than deposit funding costs inflate.
Zions Bancorporation N.A. (ZION) trades at 9.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 9.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: KeyCorp, Regions Financial Corporation, Fifth Third Bancorp and Citizens Financial Group Inc., as of 2026-10-15.
A cyclical downturn would emerge if Federal Reserve interest rate cuts coincide with intensifying commercial deposit competition and commercial real estate credit distress. In this environment, asset yields would reprice downward faster than funding costs, compressing net interest margins below 2.65%. Meanwhile, rising nonaccrual loans in Western office and retail real estate would drive credit provisioning sharply higher, eroding pre-tax earnings and reducing return on equity below the cost of capital.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Digital Banking Platform Modernization
positive
Ongoing migration of commercial clients to integrated cloud-based cash management and automated underwriting enhances operating efficiency and deepens customer switching barriers.
Deposit Disintermediation and Pricing Pressure
negative
Heightened interest rate awareness causes commercial and retail depositors to shift balances from noninterest-bearing accounts into higher-yielding alternatives.
Western US Demographic and Commercial Expansion
positive
Above-average population growth and corporate relocations in Utah, Texas, and Idaho generate steady commercial loan origination demand across regional affiliate networks.
Positioning
Zions is well positioned across high-growth Western economies, balancing asset sensitivity against regional competition. Its decentralized subsidiary model creates strong commercial middle-market customer retention compared to super-regional peers like CFG (operating margin 35.13%), FITB, KEY, and RF. However, its smaller balance sheet scale ($9.0B market capitalization) requires disciplined deposit beta management to protect funding margins against larger regional institutions.2,3
Acquiring shares on market pullbacks establishes an adequate margin of safety relative to Fair value, supporting favorable risk-adjusted returns for the initial core allocation.
Below $61.78
Add secondary allocation tranche
Market pullbacks below $61.78 as of $61.78 (as of 2026-10-14) expand the available discount to Fair value, providing enhanced risk-adjusted return.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
