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International expansion in connected living scaling fee revenue beyond the $2,265.3M non-US baseline.
Severe hurricanes causing heavy property claims in lender-placed housing.
We rate Assurant Hold. Shares trade slightly above Fair value, leaving limited margin of safety against property catastrophe cycles.
The house rating is Hold. For investors, this means maintaining existing positions while waiting for a better price before adding capital.
The report was prepared at a price of $282.23 on September 18, 2026. This price stands 7.17% above our Fair value of $261.98 and below our Potential value of $382.31.3
The main risk is severe storm activity in lender-placed housing. Catastrophe claims would compress operating margins below 7.50% and reduce cash for share buybacks.46
The main opportunity is Global Lifestyle device protection, which produced $9,940.0M of revenue in FY2025. Deep carrier partnerships generate sticky fee income, supporting free cash flow to compound per-share value toward Potential value.46
Embedded carrier integrations in Global Lifestyle generate predictable subscription-like revenue across 77.6% of the top line.6
FY2025 free cash flow of $1,598.4M exceeded net income of $872.7M, providing ample capital for buybacks and dividend growth.45
Diluted share count fell from 53,198,310 in FY2023 to 51,086,649 in FY2025, steadily enhancing long-term per-share value.
Hold: Assurant is a resilient specialty insurer, but at $282.23 shares trade above our $261.98 Fair value, offering inadequate margin of safety against storm volatility.3
Assurant, Inc. is a premier global protection company that partners with the world’s leading brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes and automobiles. Assurant, Inc. leverages data-driven technology solutions to provide exceptional customer experiences. Assurant, Inc. operates in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific through two operating segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. Assurant, Inc. (the “Company”) is a premier global protection company that partners with the world’s leading brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes and automobiles. The Company leverages data-driven technology solutions to provide exceptional customer experiences.
The Company operates in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific through two operating segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. The composition of its reportable segments aligns with how the company views and manage its business. •Table Groupings: The groupings have homogeneous risk characteristics with similar development patterns and would generally be subject to similar trends and reflect its reportable segments.
Under a severe multi-storm catastrophe season combined with carrier fee renegotiations, operating margins drop to 6.55% and revenue growth stalls below 2.0%, impairing statutory dividend upstreaming to service holding company debt of $2,208.1M.
Assurant holds a Narrow economic moat supported by switching costs in mobile device protection and specialized underwriting intangibles in lender-placed housing. Embedded carrier relationships make program displacement costly.
Underwriting licensing and tracking systems support returns above the 6.84% cost of capital. However, periodic catastrophe claims prevent a Wide moat designation.
Economic profit persists as return on equity of 18.34% exceeds the cost of equity of 7.22%.2
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($261.98). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $982.1M after modeled capex of $233.3M, with terminal value at 66.4% of . A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Revenue outperformance driven by faster international trade-in programs and benign weather loss experience expands operating leverage.
Steady fee collection across mobile protection programs balances normal seasonal storm claims.
Industry capital expenditures stand at 0.37x depreciation with low capex-to-revenue, while broader capacity data remains evidence-limited.
Expanding consumer device trade-ins and rising insurance premium rates lift underwriting margins and service fee volumes.
Severe multi-storm seasons elevate loss ratios while lengthening smartphone replacement cycles depress warranty attachment.
Maintain existing portfolio weighting given that report-date price of $282.23 trades slightly above Fair value of $261.98, offering limited margin of safety.
Cap position at 3.0% of portfolio assets to limit exposure to single-season hurricane loss severity and mobile carrier contract renewals.
At $282.23, shares trade above our $261.98 Fair value, offering minimal margin of safety against storm losses.3
The $3.52 dividend is supported by $1,598.4M free cash flow, but capital upside is limited.4
Sticky carrier partnerships defend fee revenue, but longer device replacement cycles suggest waiting for entry dips.6
Assurant is a resilient specialty insurer, but at $282.23 shares trade 7.17% above our Fair value of $261.98, warranting a Hold rating.3
Investors should maintain current allocations and defer new buys until pullbacks toward $235.00 provide adequate margin of safety.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
A downside path unfolds if multi-event severe convective storms trigger heavy reinsurance retention losses while lengthening consumer smartphone replacement cycles depress warranty fee additions.
In FY2022 operating margin fell to 4.50% during storm losses. Severe storms compress operating margins toward the 6.55% threshold.4
Global Lifestyle accounts for $9,940.0M of $12,814.3M revenue. Carrier fee concessions lower annual top-line growth below 2.0%.56
Sustained property volatility causes forward valuation multiples to contract from 12.04x toward peer Chubb at 11.70x.3
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
A drop indicates that lender-placed storm losses or device repair inflation are outrunning rate filings, eroding specialty underwriting profitability and shrinking retained earnings available to compound tangible equity capital.
Current:9.34% for FY2025
Alert ifFalls below 7.50% over trailing twelve months
Sluggish top-line expansion signals carrier partner fee concessions or lengthened smartphone replacement cycles, which diminishes high-margin protection fee generation across connected living and undermines consolidated operating leverage.
Current:$9,940.0M for FY2025
Alert ifSlows below 2.0% annual growth over next 24 months
Contracting international volume proves that global mobile protection adoption has stalled, halting geographic diversification and leaving overall earnings fully exposed to domestic weather catastrophe volatility and carrier client concentration.
Current:$2,265.3M for FY2025
Alert ifYear-over-year contraction below 0% across two consecutive quarters
Sharp operating cash compression reveals adverse claim settlements or uncollected premiums, restricting holding company liquidity, forcing curtailment of share repurchases, and tightening capital flexibility across regulated underwriting subsidiaries.
Current:$1,598.4M for FY2025
Alert ifDrops below $800.0M over trailing twelve months
Share count expansion indicates that capital returns have ceased due to insurance subsidiary dividend blocks following catastrophe losses, halting per-share compounding and diluting ownership across specialty protection operations.
Current:51,086,649 shares for FY2025
Alert ifIncreases above 52,000,000 shares over next 12 months
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Use book value per share with normalized ROE, cost of equity, and terminal growth to derive a justified price-to-book value.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 80.4% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Assurant achieves Fair value at $261.98 and target $261.98 (probability 55.0%%, return -7.2%% from $282.23), driven by steady mobile protection subscriber renewals and disciplined housing loss ratios.1
Potential value reaches $382.31 and target $382.31 (probability 20.0%%, return 35.5%%), as accelerated international carrier expansion and benign storm seasons expand operating margins above consensus expectations.6
Underwriting losses in lender-placed insurance or carrier contract attrition compress consolidated operating margins.
Operating cash conversion remains healthy, with operating cash flow substantially exceeding reported net income due to predictable upfront fee collections and disciplined claim provisioning.4
Underwriting discipline preserves consolidated operating income against weather catastrophe volatility.4
| $10.19B |
| $10.19B |
| $11.13B |
| $11.88B |
| $12.81B |
| +5.9% |
| Gross profit | $7.99B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
| Operating income | $883.0M | $458.2M | $914.8M | $1.03B | $1.20B | +7.9% |
| Net income | $1.36B | $276.6M | $642.5M | $760.2M | $872.7M | -10.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $22.66 | $5.05 | $11.95 | $14.46 | $16.93 | -7.0% |
| EBITDA | $1.06B | $640.0M | $1.11B | $1.26B | $1.45B | +8.2% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $3.25B | — | — | — | — | — |
Free cash flow reached $1,598.4M in FY2025 on operating cash flow of $1,833.9M, representing $1.83 of free cash flow for every dollar of reported net income of $872.7M.45
Capital deployment prioritizes share repurchases and regular dividends, retiring shares from 53,198,310 in FY2023 to 51,086,649 in FY2025 while supporting total debt of $2,208.1M.
Return on equity of 18.34% and ROIC of 12.58% reflect disciplined underwriting and high-margin device protection fees.
ROIC of 12.58% comfortably exceeds the 6.84% cost of capital.
FY2025 free cash flow of $1,598.4M exceeded net income of $872.7M.
Asset-light warranty operations generate surplus capital for buybacks without external debt reliance.
Average diluted shares declined by 2.11M shares over two years through FY2025.
Persistent repurchases augment per-share earnings growth even during modest top-line expansion.
| Revenue | $10,187,600,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $2,201,600,000 |
| Gross profit | $7,986,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $7,215,000,000 |
| Operating income | $771,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | $590,800,000 |
| Net income | $1,361,800,000 |
| Total assets | $36,289,600,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $1,834,100,000 |
| Total liabilities | $30,418,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $5,871,600,000 |
| Net income | $872,700,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $1,833,900,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $250,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $85,700,000 |
| Other operating adjustments | $625,500,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $1,833,900,000 |
| Cash available | $3,656,100,000 |
| Beginning cash | $1,807,700,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $14,500,000 |
| Investing outflow | $1,457,800,000 |
| Capex | $235,500,000 |
| Other investing activities | $1,222,300,000 |
| Financing outflow | $364,200,000 |
| Net debt issuance | $121,700,000 |
| Share repurchases | $303,700,000 |
| Dividends paid | $168,400,000 |
| Other financing activities | $13,800,000 |
| Ending cash | $1,834,100,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$1,457,800,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$364,200,000 |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Filed 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
| Revenue by operating segment | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Lifestyle | $9.9B | 77.6% | 6.6% |
| Global Housing | $2.9B | 22.7% | 12.6% |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-09-20 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $7.5B | $637M | $565.4M | $108.6M | $23.4M | $85.2M | $125.1M | $41.6M | $863.1M | $125.3M | — | $725.6M | -$1.1B | — | $1B | $1B | — | 11.3% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $6.4B | $506M | $519.6M | $530.4M | $468.3M | $62.1M | $115.7M | $35.5M | $388.9M | $119M | — | -$541.2M | -$26.7M | $1B | $996.8M | $996.8M | $1.1B | 6.9% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $8.1B | $504M | $251M | $656.7M | $573.9M | $82.8M | $126.9M | $57.1M | $139.3M | $133.8M | — | -$2.2B | $1.8B | $996.8M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2B | 4.1% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $9.6B | $854M | $382.6M | $1.4B | $1.3B | $110.3M | $125.8M | $55.9M | $271.8M | $151.4M | — | -$619.8M | -$179.2M | $1.3B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2B | 6.5% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $9.6B | $825M | $440.8M | $1.3B | $1.2B | $121.2M | $144.3M | $57.9M | $297M | $154.6M | — | -$735.2M | -$264.8M | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.2B | — | 6.0% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $10.2B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $781.7M | $594.3M | $187.4M | $171.6M | $66.7M | $839.3M | $157.6M | — | $157.6M | -$1.1B | $2.2B | $2B | $2B | — | 7.6% | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $10.2B | $640M | $276.6M | $596.9M | $410.6M | $186.3M | $182M | $62.6M | $572.8M | $150.2M | -$75.9M | -$262.1M | -$818.4M | $2.1B | $1.5B | $8B | $2.1B | 4.5% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $11.1B | $1.1B | $642.5M | $1.1B | $935.6M | $202.5M | $196.4M | $75.1M | $193.1M | $152.3M | -$51.8M | -$637.7M | -$403.9M | $1.5B | $1.6B | $3.7B | $2.1B | 8.2% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $11.9B | $1.3B | $760.2M | $1.3B | $1.1B | $221.3M | $223.5M | $81.1M | $307.4M | $155.9M | $0 | -$657.8M | -$477.5M | $1.6B | $1.8B | $9.3B | $2.1B | 8.7% | — | 6.9% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $12.8B | $1.4B | $872.7M | $1.8B | $1.6B | $235.5M | $250M | $85.7M | $303.7M | $168.4M | $121.7M | -$1.5B | -$364.2M | $1.8B | $1.8B | $4.6B | $2.2B | 9.3% | — | 6.4% | — |
Assurant Inc. (AIZ) trades at 12.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.1x compares with a peer median of 10.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Loews Corporation, W. R. Berkley Corporation, SoFi Technologies, Inc. and Chubb Limited, as of 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20.
| Connected Living and Device Complexity | positive | Higher replacement costs for premium smartphones support consumer demand for warranty and protection programs. |
| Severe Weather Frequency | negative | Elevated storm occurrences drive catastrophe claims, requiring disciplined rate filings and reinsurance management. |
Assurant holds leading market share in carrier-embedded mobile protection and lender-placed property insurance, insulated by multi-year partnership integration.6
| Provides sufficient margin of safety against property catastrophe underwriting volatility. |
| Below $210.00 (20% discount to Fair value) | Add to position | Deep discount to intrinsic value compensating for severe weather loss cycles. |
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
| W. R. Berkley Corporation |
| $26.0B |
| 14.5x |
| 1.7x |
| 10.2x |
| 20.2% |
| 16.4% |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $21.9B | 20.5x | 5.1x | 7.1% | 17.0% |
| CB | Chubb Limited | $131.4B | 11.7x | 2.1x | 10.3x | 14.8% | 23.5% |
