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The biggest opportunity lies in accelerated net new asset gathering and advisor productivity gains driven by institutional bank partnerships and proprietary technology rollout.
A combined equity market contraction of 20% or more and a 100 bps decline in policy interest rates compressing bank sweep deposit spreads.
We rate Ameriprise Financial Buy, offering 24.12% upside from the October 2, 2026 price of $490.91 to our Fair value of $609.31 per share, supported by strong wealth management fees and capital-light cash generation.4
Ameriprise Financial is rated Buy. For an ordinary investor, this rating means the stock is attractively priced relative to its long-term cash generation and earnings durability, offering favorable risk-adjusted return potential over a multi-year holding period.
On October 2, 2026, Ameriprise shares traded at $490.91. That price sits at a 19.43% discount to our Fair value of $609.31 per share, representing 24.12% implied upside. In an expansion scenario where advisor productivity accelerates and asset gathering exceeds targets, Potential value reaches $829.98 per share, or 69.07% above the report-date price.4
The primary risk that would challenge this view is a severe equity market downturn paired with declining cash sweep yields. Lower asset valuations and falling policy interest rates reduce management fees and bank net interest spread in Advice and Wealth Management. Because branch and advisor network expenses are largely fixed, this revenue drop would compress consolidated operating margins below 22.5% compared to 25.54% in FY2025. Investors would observe this risk unfolding through consecutive quarters of negative organic asset flows and shrinking wealth management operating margins.2457
The primary engine supporting the investment case is Ameriprise's capital-light wealth management distribution. Advice and Wealth Management generates over half of total revenue ($10.17 billion of $18.91 billion in FY2025). Upcoming onboarding of 260 advisors and $28 billion in client assets from the Huntington partnership in the fourth quarter of 2026 more than offsets the departure of $19 billion in Comerica assets. Because physical capital expenditures require less than 1% of revenue ($162 million in FY2025), the company converts operating cash flow ($8.32 billion) into $8.16 billion of free cash flow. Management directs 85% to 90% of operating earnings back to shareholders, repurchasing $2.91 billion of stock in FY2025, steadily reducing share count and driving double-digit growth in diluted earnings per share toward $51.67 in FY2027.1567
Advice and Wealth Management accounts for $10.17 billion (53.8%) of consolidated revenue. Direct control over retail advisor distribution insulates fees from passive pricing pressure and delivers stable operating margins above 25%.478
Annual capital expenditure was just $162 million in FY2025, or 0.86% of revenue. This capital-light structure converted $8.32 billion of operating cash flow into $8.16 billion of free cash flow, leaving over 90% of cash available for distribution.
We rate Ameriprise Financial Buy because its high-retention wealth management franchise and minimal capital requirements generate robust free cash flow, funding massive share buybacks that drive double-digit earnings growth.
Ameriprise Financial is a diversified financial services company with a more than 130-year history of providing financial solutions. AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. is a long-standing leader in financial planning and advice with $1.7 trillion in assets under management, administration, and advisement as of December 31, 2025. AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, INC. offers a broad range of products and services designed to achieve individual and institutional clients’ financial objectives. Its company has provided solutions to help clients confidently achieve their financial objectives for more than 130 years. Its earliest predecessor company, Investors Syndicate, was founded in 1894 to provide face-amount certificates to consumers.
In 1983, its company was formed as a Delaware corporation in connection with American Express’ acquisition of IDS Financial Services from Alleghany Corporation. The financial results from the businesses underlying its go-to-market approaches are reflected in its operating segments: Its Corporate & Other segment includes its closed blocks of LTC insurance and fixed annuity and fixed indexed annuity (“FA”) business.
Under a macroeconomic stress test combining a 20% equity market correction and a 100 bps reduction in cash sweep deposit spreads, fee-based wrap accounts in Advice & Wealth Management ($10,170M FY2025 revenue) and asset management fees at Columbia Threadneedle ($3,541M revenue) contract simultaneously. Coupled with the departure of $19B in Comerica client assets and advisor recruiting retention pressures requiring elevated cash bonuses, consolidated operating margins compress from 25.54% toward 22.5%, driving downside valuation toward $410.24.
Ameriprise Financial's competitive moat is evaluated as Narrow, underpinned by strong switching costs in Advice & Wealth Management and proprietary retail distribution across roughly 10,000 advisors. In FY2025, Advice & Wealth Management generated $10,170M, or 53.8% of consolidated revenue of $18,911M. Retail wealth management clients face significant logistical, operational, and tax-planning frictions when contemplating switching providers, resulting in high asset retention and recurring wrap account fees that persist across broader financial market cycles.
While pure-play asset management peers such as BlackRock (operating margin 35.08%) dominate institutional passive indexing, Ameriprise captures value directly through advice delivery, financial planning, and discretionary account management. This structural insulation allows Ameriprise to maintain an operating margin of 25.54% and deliver an extraordinary return on equity of 63.43%, easily surpassing its 9.37% cost of equity. Capital intensity remains negligible, with capex absorbing just $162M in FY2025.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($609.31). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $3.9B after modeled reinvestment of $207.7M, with terminal value at 79.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
A decisive earnings beat driven by organic net asset inflows confirms that advisor productivity tools and platform additions are successfully outpacing institutional attrition, accelerating the path toward $829.98.
Meeting consensus expectations validates the baseline trajectory toward $609.31, confirming that ongoing capital deployment via share buybacks continues to support per-share earnings growth.
The financial sector benchmark exhibits an average capex-to-revenue ratio of 21.0%, whereas Ameriprise operates with an exceptionally low capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.86% ($162M capex on $18,911M revenue in FY2025), declining from $184M in FY2023 and $176M in FY2024.7
A synchronized equity market advance expands client billable assets under management, driving fee-based wrap revenue and operating margins toward 26.5%, while incoming institutional assets (such as $28B from Huntington) re-accelerate top-line revenue toward $21.20B by FY2027.
An equity market downturn combined with Federal Reserve policy rate cuts reduces wrap fee realizations and compresses bank deposit sweep net interest margins, while institutional client departures ($19B Comerica outflows) compress toward 22.5%.
Ameriprise commands a premier capital-light wealth management franchise with durable recurring advisory fees, a wide ROIC spread over cost of capital, and consistent share count reduction. A 4-6% allocation reflects high conviction in the business model balanced against broader equity market sensitivity and sweep deposit spread cyclicality.
Risk is controlled through strict position sizing limits (maximum 6% portfolio weight), ongoing monitoring of Federal Reserve interest rate policy impacts on bank sweep net interest income, and continuous tracking of quarterly organic net client asset flows. If institutional offboarding accelerates without offsetting partner onboarding, position exposure will be dynamically adjusted.
Ameriprise trades at a forward P/E of 9.76x, a noticeable discount to peer wealth and asset managers such as BlackRock (16.48x) and State Street (11.41x). With over 53% of revenue in wealth management and free cash flow of $8.16B, fundamental valuation metrics offer compelling margin of safety relative to Fair value of $609.31.3468
We recommend a Buy rating on Ameriprise Financial at $490.91 as of October 2, 2026. The shares trade at an attractive 19.43% discount to our Fair value of $609.31 per share (24.12% implied upside) and offer Potential value up to $829.98.4
Ameriprise's advice-driven business model generates high returns on equity with minimal capital intensity ($162M capex in FY2025), enabling over $8.1B in free cash flow and consistent 85% to 90% payout of operating earnings via buybacks and dividends. Upcoming Huntington asset inflows ($28B) offset Comerica exits ($19B), anchoring steady EPS growth toward $51.67 in FY2027.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Ameriprise maintains $2.1 billion in excess capital and returned 91% of operating earnings in Q2 2026. FY2025 share repurchases of $2.91B dwarfed stock compensation of $206M, steadily reducing diluted shares and driving forward EPS toward $51.67 in FY2027.157
In the Bear case, equity market contraction reduces fee-earning client assets under management across Advice and Wealth Management and Columbia Threadneedle. Simultaneously, policy interest rate cuts compress bank cash sweep yields, while competitive bidding wars for financial advisor talent increase recruitment and transition costs, compressing consolidated operating margins and constraining capital available for share buybacks.
In FY2025, operating income of $4,830M on $18,911M revenue yielded a 25.54% operating margin, with Advice & Wealth Management contributing $10,170M (53.8%). Bank net interest spread contributes substantially to AWM margins. If equity markets contract 20% and deposit sweep spreads fall by 100 bps following policy rate cuts, fixed advisor and branch network overhead compresses consolidated operating margin below 22.5%.4578
The base forecast assumes revenue expands from $18,911M in FY2025 to $21,197M in FY2027, reflecting ~5.7-6.0% annual growth. However, the loss of $19B in assets from Comerica and ongoing passive shift to lower-fee ETFs in Columbia Threadneedle ($3,541M revenue) could drag revenue growth down by 5 percentage points, stalling 5-year CAGR below 1.5%.1578
The base valuation assumes the terminal P/E multiple expands from current forward P/E of 9.76x to 10.50x toward the peer median of 13.19x. If regulatory sweep fee crackdowns and life insurance balance-sheet risks compress investor sentiment toward insurance-peer multiples like PRU (7.58x forward P/E), the terminal multiple falls 20% below 10.5x to 8.4x.34
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Severe market share loss or client asset outflows in the core advisory franchise eroding the primary earnings engine.
Current:53.8% ($10,170M of $18,911M in FY2025)
Alert if< 48.0% of consolidated revenue
Surge in legacy system overhaul or regulatory platform expenditures impairs capital-light free cash flow conversion.
Current:$162M in FY2025 (0.86% of revenue)
Alert if> $300M annually
Intense competitive pricing pressure from discount brokerages and sweep spread compression compressing advisory margins.
Current:25.54% in FY2025 ($4,830M operating income on $18,911M revenue)
Alert if< 20.0%
Institutional partner churn accelerating beyond incoming partnership asset onboarding ($28B Huntington assets), impairing net organic growth.
Current:$19B departing in FY2026 from Comerica relationship
Alert if> $25B in annual cumulative institutional departures
Sharp contraction in bank deposit sweep spreads reducing high-margin revenue in Advice & Wealth Management.
Current:Benchmark risk-free rate of 5.26% supporting bank net interest spread
Alert if> 100 bps policy rate reduction without lending yield offset
Nonetheless, the moat cannot be classified as Wide due to competitive pressures in institutional asset management ($3,541M revenue in FY2025) and the constant risk of advisor attrition. Competitor recruiting packages offering cash payouts with payback periods as long as eight years require Ameriprise to continually reinvest in advisor technology and maintain competitive payout structures to preserve its advisory network.
Ameriprise generates substantial economic profit, with returns on capital far exceeding its computed cost of capital. The firm's return on equity of 63.43% and estimated ROIC of 33.08% substantially outstrip its moderate cost of equity of 9.37% and computed WACC of 8.94%. This wide spread between economic return and hurdle rates reflects an asset-light operating model requiring only $162M in annual capital expenditures against $4,830M of operating income.247
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted EPS, discount each year's earnings at cost of equity, then add a Gordon-growth terminal value.
Under the moderate discount rate, $183 comes from forecast-period earnings and $673 from the long-term value, totaling $856.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
In the Base case, the shares target $609.31, delivering an implied return of 24.1% at an assigned probability of 60.0%. Ameriprise sustains mid-single-digit organic revenue expansion in Advice and Wealth Management, where recurring advisory fees and client asset retention offset predictable institutional departures. Consolidated operating margins hold steady as technology-enabled advisor efficiency balances compliance and platform investments, while disciplined cash deployment retires shares annually to drive steady diluted earnings per share growth.
In the Bull case, reaching $829.98 with an implied return of 69.1% at an estimated probability of 20.0%, net client asset inflows re-accelerate across Advice and Wealth Management as newly integrated advisor partnerships exceed outflow offsets. Operating margins expand through operating leverage and productivity gains from artificial intelligence tools across the advisor network, while aggressive share repurchases deploy excess capital to compound per-share earnings.
A quarterly earnings miss caused by structural sweep spread compression or advisor attrition would erode franchise operating leverage and weaken the path to $609.31.
Ameriprise maintains high earnings quality characterized by substantial free cash flow conversion and transparent fee-based revenue streams. Operating cash generation consistently covers reported net income, driven by capital-light wealth advisory operations with minimal physical reinvestment requirements. Balance sheet liquidity remains robust, and operating earnings are free from distortive working capital swings or aggressive accounting deferrals.
Tracks client asset additions and advisory relationship depth, indicating whether franchise expansion outpaces institutional client churn and driving advisory wrap fee revenue.
Determines net interest margin earned on uninvested client cash, directly influencing wealth management operating profit and per-share cash earnings.
Measures firmwide operating efficiency and expense control against fixed overhead, dictating how effectively incremental revenue converts into operating profit.
Reduces diluted share count and compounds per-share intrinsic value, determining how much excess capital reaches equity owners.
Reflects competitive resilience against passive index funds, where sustained active equity redemptions pressure segment revenue and fee realization.
| $13.39B |
| $14.33B |
| $16.10B |
| $17.93B |
| $18.91B |
| +9.0% |
| Gross profit | $-203.0M | $-274.0M | $-885.0M | $-991.0M | $9.53B | — |
| Operating income | $4.38B | $4.13B | $3.56B | $4.60B | $4.83B | +2.5% |
| Net income | $3.42B | $3.15B | $2.56B | $3.40B | $3.56B | +1.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $28.48 | $27.70 | $23.71 | $33.05 | $36.28 | +6.2% |
| EBITDA | $4.47B | $4.09B | $3.40B | $4.44B | $5.04B | +3.0% |
| R&D | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | -10.6% |
| SG&A | $8.46B | $8.66B | $8.95B | $3.90B | $3.90B | -17.6% |
Cash generation is a core franchise strength. Ameriprise generated $8,323M in GAAP operating cash flow in FY2025 and $8,161M in free cash flow, against capital expenditures of only $162M. This cash conversion reflects an advice and fee-based revenue architecture that requires minimal physical reinvestment, providing ample liquidity to sustain buybacks through market cycles.67
Management maintains a disciplined and shareholder-friendly capital return policy, targeting 85% to 90% of operating earnings returned via dividends and programmatic share repurchases. In FY2025, Ameriprise deployed $2,907M to share buybacks, which dwarfs stock-based compensation of $206M and drove diluted average share count down to 98.2M shares. Capital health is supported by $2.1B in excess capital and $2.8B in holding company available liquidity as of Q2 2026.
Ameriprise demonstrates exceptional returns on capital driven by the expansion of its capital-light Advice & Wealth Management division, which generated $10,170M of consolidated revenue in FY2025. With ROE at 63.43% and ROIC at 33.08%, returns on invested capital are projected to remain structurally elevated as annual capital expenditures ($162M in FY2025) remain below 1% of total revenue.
The firm's estimated ROIC of 33.08% provides an expansive 2,414 basis point spread over its computed WACC of 8.94% and a 2,371 basis point spread over its cost of equity of 9.37%, demonstrating robust economic value creation.
Advice & Wealth Management generated $10,170M (53.8%) of $18,911M total revenue in FY2025, supporting operating income of $4,830M and a 25.54% operating margin.
Recurring fee-based wrap accounts insulate top-line cash generation against the acute fee degradation observed in pure institutional asset managers.
Capex declined from $184M in FY2023 to $176M in FY2024 and $162M in FY2025, representing just 0.86% of revenue.
Negligible physical capital demands allow virtually all operating cash flow to be returned directly to equity holders through buybacks and dividends.
Ameriprise trades at a forward P/E of 9.76x, substantially below BlackRock at 16.48x, Blackstone at 14.97x, and State Street at 11.41x.
Market pricing excessively penalizes Ameriprise for its legacy protection segment while under-valuing its premier wealth management franchise.
| Revenue | $18,911,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $9,383,000,000 |
| Gross profit | $9,528,000,000 |
| Operating expenses | $4,698,000,000 |
| Operating income | $4,830,000,000 |
| Non-operating items and tax | -$1,267,000,000 |
| Net income | $3,563,000,000 |
| Total assets | $190,904,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Cash | $11,158,000,000 |
| Current assets | $82,216,000,000 |
| Total liabilities | $184,355,000,000 |
| Current liabilities | $3,182,000,000 |
| Shareholders’ equity | $6,549,000,000 |
| Net income | $3,563,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Operating inflow | $8,323,000,000 |
| Depreciation and amortization | $151,000,000 |
| Stock-based compensation | $206,000,000 |
| Other operating adjustments | $4,403,000,000 |
| Operating cash flow | $8,323,000,000 |
| Cash available | $17,843,000,000 |
| Beginning cash | $9,489,000,000 |
| Exchange-rate effect | $31,000,000 |
| Investing outflow | $1,528,000,000 |
| Capex | $162,000,000 |
| Other investing activities | $1,366,000,000 |
| Financing outflow | $5,157,000,000 |
| Net debt issuance | $429,000,000 |
| Share repurchases | $2,907,000,000 |
| Dividends paid | $596,000,000 |
| Other financing activities | $2,083,000,000 |
| Ending cash | $11,158,000,000 |
| Investing cash flow | -$1,528,000,000 |
| Financing cash flow | -$5,157,000,000 |
Point-in-time financial data used in the 2026-10-02 analysis.
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Capex | Depreciation and amortization | Stock-based compensation | Share repurchases | Dividends paid | Net debt issuance | Investing cash flow | Financing cash flow | Beginning cash | Ending cash | Cash and investments | Total debt | Operating margin | ROIC | WACC | ROIC − WACC spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $11.8B | $2.1B | $1.3B | $2.3B | $2.2B | $92M | $248M | $134M | $1.7B | $479M | — | -$783M | -$1.1B | — | $5.5B | $33B | $5.4B | 16.0% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $12.2B | $2.7B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $162M | $234M | $121M | $1.5B | $491M | — | -$171M | -$1.8B | $5.5B | $5.1B | $36.1B | $5.3B | 20.9% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $12.9B | $2.9B | $2.1B | $2.6B | $2.4B | $162M | $198M | $144M | $1.6B | $506M | — | -$587M | -$1.3B | $5.1B | $5.9B | $36.9B | $4.8B | 21.7% | — | 6.7% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $13.1B | $2.6B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.2B | $143M | $147M | $135M | $1.9B | $504M | — | -$3.2B | $1.2B | $5.9B | $6.2B | $39.3B | $4.9B | 18.0% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $12B | $2.2B | $1.5B | $4.6B | $4.5B | $147M | $153M | $146M | $1.4B | $497M | — | -$2.9B | $952M | $6.2B | $8.9B | $45.2B | $4.9B | 15.3% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $13.4B | $4.5B | $3.4B | $3.3B | $3.2B | $120M | $144M | $152M | $2B | $511M | — | -$4.4B | $1.7B | $8.9B | $9.6B | $41.6B | $5.2B | 31.3% | — | 6.3% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $14.3B | $4.1B | $3.1B | $4.4B | $4.2B | $182M | $142M | $170M | $2B | $534M | $322M | -$13.6B | $8.4B | $9.6B | $8.8B | $49.6B | $5.4B | 27.4% | — | 8.3% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $16.1B | $3.4B | $2.6B | $4.7B | $4.5B | $184M | $151M | $187M | $2.1B | $550M | $300M | -$9.3B | $4.4B | $8.8B | $8.6B | $60.2B | $5.8B | 20.1% | — | 8.2% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $17.9B | $4.4B | $3.4B | $6.6B | $6.4B | $176M | $142M | $193M | $2.4B | $574M | -$292M | -$551M | -$5.2B | $8.6B | $9.5B | $61.6B | $5.5B | 23.8% | — | 9.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $18.9B | $5B | $3.6B | $8.3B | $8.2B | $162M | $151M | $206M | $2.9B | $596M | $429M | -$1.5B | -$5.2B | $9.5B | $11.2B | $64.7B | $5.9B | 25.5% | — | 7.9% | — |
Ameriprise Financial Inc. (AMP) trades at 9.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: State Street Corporation, Blackstone Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc., as of 2026-10-02.
Ameriprise is strategically positioned as a premier advice-led wealth manager, generating 53.8% of its revenue from Advice & Wealth Management ($10,170M in FY2025), which shields consolidated profitability against institutional fee pressures that challenge pure asset managers like BlackRock or balance sheet volatility at life insurers like Prudential.38
| Action |
|---|
| Why |
|---|
| $480 - $495 | Establish core initial tranche | Initiate position around current trading levels representing an attractive forward P/E multiple below 10x and a nearly 20% discount to fair value. |
| $450 - $465 | Opportunistic addition | Add to the position if market-wide volatility creates an expanded margin of safety, aligning with management's historical opportunistic share repurchase levels. |
| Below $430 | High-conviction value accumulation | Substantial accumulation level approaching 52-week lows ($422.37), offering compelling risk-adjusted asymmetric return potential. |
Ameriprise targets returning 85% to 90% of operating earnings through dividends and opportunistic buybacks. In FY2025, $2.91B in repurchases contracted shares significantly, while $2.1B in excess capital and $2.8B in holding company liquidity secure durable shareholder capital distributions across market cycles.57
Investors with elevated concern over near-term market volatility or policy rate cuts may hold current positions or phase entry gradually. While cash sweep spread compression and potential equity drawdowns could temporarily pressure operating margins toward 22.5%, Ameriprise's capital strength and incoming Huntington assets ($28B) provide strong downside protection well above bear levels.5
A combined equity market contraction of 20% or more and a 100 bps decline in policy interest rates compressing bank sweep deposit spreads. Lower equity asset values directly shrink fee-earning wrap accounts and advisory assets in Advice & Wealth Management ($10.17B revenue in FY2025) and Asset Management ($3.54B revenue), while falling short-term interest rates reduce net interest spread earned on client cash sweep balances. Because branch infrastructure and advisor support costs are largely fixed, this top-line contraction flows directly through to operating profit. Consolidated operating margin compresses below 22.5% from 25.54% reported in FY2025, reducing annual operating income by over $600M and lowering fair value by 23.5%. Monitor quarterly Advice & Wealth Management pre-tax operating margin and bank net interest spread disclosures; a drop in consolidated operating margin below 22.5% or two consecutive quarters of negative organic net asset flows triggers a thesis downgrade.24578
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($194) plus discounted terminal value ($735) minus signed net debt per current share (-$666.14) equals the $1,595 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
| Blackstone Inc. |
| $133.6B |
| 15.0x |
| 8.6x |
| 31.4% |
| 54.4% |
| BLK | BlackRock Inc. | $172.2B | 16.5x | 6.3x | 15.6x | 12.3% | 35.1% |
| PRU | Prudential Financial Inc. | $38.8B | 7.6x | 0.6x | 11.4x | 12.0% | 7.5% |
