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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MCO — frequently asked questions
Is Moody's Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, MCO looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 441 versus our fair value of USD 327; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 400. That implies roughly 25.8% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives MCO a fair value of USD 327 and a potential value of USD 400. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Moody's Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MCO now?
Our latest published rating for MCO, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell. Moody's Corporation looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 441 versus fair value of USD 327; potential value is USD 400. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MCO?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Moody's Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MCO's rating?
Our latest published rating for MCO, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9.2/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 327, the potential value of USD 400, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 441).
An acceleration in enterprise artificial intelligence adoption driving data center hyperscaler debt issuance well beyond the guided $800B pipeline, combined with rapid adoption of MA connected risk intelligence and agentic workflow integration, which could expand MA operating margins to the high-30s ahead of schedule and support our bull-case valuation of $399.89.
Main risk
A severe corporate bond issuance contraction causing MIS segment revenue to decline by 5.0% or more YoY over two consecutive quarters.
Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) is rated Sell with a compositefair value of $327.35, implying -25.83% downside from the October 2, 2026 price of $441.36. While Moody's commands an exceptional economic moat through its debt ratings duopoly and expanding recurring analytics franchise, valuation at 24.27x forward earnings trades at a 34.83% premium to fair value, leaving investors vulnerable to debt issuance mix deceleration and higher refinancing costs on $7,620M of debt.4,5
Moody's Corporation is assigned a Sell rating with a compositefair value of $327.35, indicating -25.83% implied return from the prevailing market price of $441.36 (a 34.83% price premium). Moody's trades at an elevated 24.27x forward P/E, reflecting a notable premium over comparable infrastructure peers such as S&P Global at 19.11x and Intercontinental Exchange at 17.07x. Current market levels fully price in terminal compounding expectations while offering no margin of safety against cyclical or multiple reversion risks.3,4
Operational exposure remains heavily centered in Moody's Investors Service (MIS), which generated $4,317M in revenue in FY2025 (55.93% of the consolidated $7,718M total). While the first half of 2026 benefited from pull-forward activity among hyperscalers and frequent financial institution debt issuers, management confirmed that frequent issuer volume is structurally less revenue-rich. Consequently, management guided Q3 MIS revenue growth to low single digits, exposing consolidated earnings to negative operating leverage if issuance softens further.5,7,8
Core business quality remains robust: Moody's Analytics delivered $3,611M in FY2025 revenue, growing ARR in the high single digits with segment operating margins guided to expand toward the mid-to-high 30s by 2027. The company generated $2,901M in operating cash flow and $2,575M in free cash flow on capex of just $326M. Nevertheless, returning over 130% of FCF via up to $3B in 2026 capital returns faces constraints from $7,620M in debt requiring refinancing at higher yields (pre-tax cost of debt 5.78%).2,4,5,6
Our composite valuation of $327.35 synthesizes six models, balancing forward earnings ($366.64) and multi-stage moat fade ($339.00) against firm-level discounted cash flow ($229.94) and discounted earnings ($279.19). With market price at $441.36, valuation is stretched across historical and peer benchmarks, compelling a Sell recommendation.4
Entrenched Credit Ratings Duopoly
Moody's Investors Service maintains an entrenched regulatory and contractual duopoly with S&P Global, exercising 3% to 5% annual pricing power across global debt issuance ($4,317M in FY2025 revenue).8
High-Margin Recurring Analytics Software
Moody's Analytics generates high-retention enterprise risk software subscription revenue ($3,611M in FY2025) with segment operating margins guided to expand to the mid-to-high 30s by 2027.5,8
Sell. Moody's Corporation is an outstanding business, but its current market valuation of $441.36 stands at a 34.83% premium to our compositefair value of $327.35, implying -25.83% downside. Investors should trim or liquidate equity holdings.4
Company overview
Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) is a global integrated risk assessment firm providing credit ratings, research, risk tools, and financial data infrastructure. The company operates via two principal divisions: Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA). Consolidated revenue reached $7,718M in FY2025, generating operating income of $3,351M and net income of $2,459M.
Moody's high historical profitability and duopoly positioning mask severe operational leverage to debt issuance contractions. In FY2025, Moody's Investors Service (MIS) generated $4,317M in revenue, accounting for 55.93% of consolidated top-line performance. During the 2022 debt issuance contraction, consolidated operating profit fell from peak levels to $1,883M before rebounding to $3,351M in FY2025. Management acknowledged that 2026 issuance was heavily front-loaded into the first half due to hyperscaler borrowing pull-forward with a less revenue-rich fee mix, guiding Q3 MIS revenue growth to low single digits. Under a stress environment where credit spreads widen and corporate issuance declines by 5%, high fixed analytical costs create immediate margin compression. Concurrently, MCO carries $7,620M in total debt with $2,328M maturing over four years, which must be refinanced against a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.78%, driving annual interest expense higher and dampening buyback capacity. When combined with valuation compression toward peer median forward P/E of 19.20x, the equity faces severe downside risk from prevailing market levels of $441.36.
Moody's Corporation operates one of the most durable business franchises in global financial market infrastructure, underpinned by a Wide economic moat across its two complementary operating divisions: Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA). In FY2025, consolidated revenue reached $7,718M, generating operating income of $3,351M (43.42% operating margin) and free cash flow of $2,575M.
The primary pillar of the moat resides in MIS, which generated $4,317M in FY2025 revenue. Together with S&P Global, Moody's forms an entrenched duopoly controlling the vast majority of global credit ratings. This structure is insulated by regulatory barriers, notably the SEC's Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) designation, as well as contractual debt covenants and investment mandates that legally require major corporate and sovereign bond issuances to obtain ratings from at least two established agencies. This creates structural , enabling MIS to implement regular 3-5% price increases while maintaining high .
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($327.35). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.5B after modeled reinvestment of $220.7M, with terminal value at 75.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to , reinvestment, or resets materially.
Upgrade the rating; Do not deploy fresh capital; verify whether the outperformance stemmed from non-recurring issuance pull-forward or durable enterprise subscription expansion, and monitor corporate debt pipeline indicators.
Trigger: Quarterly EPS and revenue exceeding consensus expectations driven by debt issuance acceleration
A quarterly earnings beat driven by pull-forward of debt issuance does not alter the fundamental valuation disconnect, as market pricing at $441.36 already discounts aggressive growth and multiple persistence well above peer medians; an upgrade to Reduce would be contingent on durable structural volume growth.
In-line
Maintain Sell; Maintain position avoidance or continue staged liquidation; confirm that analytics annual recurring revenue and operating margins track management annual guidance checkpoints.
Financial services industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.4% and capex-to-depreciation is 0.9x, demonstrating structurally low asset intensity across peers. Global debt issuance is projected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate in 2026, supported by enterprise tech capex pipelines, though capacity and lead-time metrics remain unavailable, indicating that the industry cycle is demand-led and evidence-limited.5
Bull cycle
In an expansionary credit cycle, corporate bond refinancing surges alongside massive hyperscaler and private credit debt issuance, driving double-digit transaction volume growth in MIS. High operating leverage transmits incremental ratings revenue directly into operating margins, while financial institutions expand risk analytics subscriptions to comply with regulatory underwriting frameworks.
§11 Position management
Sizing
0%
Moody's October 2, 2026 share price of $441.36 trades at a 34.8% premium to compositefair value of $327.35, yielding an implied return of -25.8%. Trading at 24.27x forward P/E, MCO sits well above peer medians (SPGI 19.11x, ICE 17.07x), creating severe vulnerability to debt issuance normalization and interest rate pressure. Under the committee's Sell rating directive, position weight must be zero.3,4
Risk
Capital preservation is paramount given that MCO at $441.36 carries an implied return of -25.8% to compositefair value of $327.35. The committee's Sell rating instructs full position avoidance. Primary risk factors include high exposure to debt capital market issuance cycles ($4,317M MIS revenue in FY2025), $7,620M in debt facing higher refinancing rates against a pre-tax of 5.78%, and multiple contraction risk toward peer medians. Any residual holdings should be liquidated into market strength.
§12 Investor perspectives
Value Investor
Avoid
At $441.36, MCO trades at a 34.83% premium to intrinsic fair value of $327.35 and 24.27x forward P/E. Value investors should avoid the stock due to the complete lack of a margin of safety.4
Growth Investor
Avoid
While consensus models FY2027 revenue of $8,888M and EPS of $18.92, management guidance projects high single-digit revenue growth with MIS Q3 growth decelerating to low single digits. At a of 2.02x, growth investors can find superior risk-adjusted growth in peers such as SPGI ( 1.47x).
§14 Final recommendation
Action
Sell
We recommend a Sell on Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). At $441.36, the stock trades at an implied return of -25.83% relative to our compositefair value of $327.35, or a 34.83% price premium. Moody's trades at 24.27x forward P/E, substantially above peer medians including SPGI at 19.11x and ICE at 17.07x, leaving no safety margin for multiple contraction.3,4
While Moody's wide moat and high cash conversion remain premier franchise attributes, early 2026 issuance tailwinds are dissipating. Management has indicated that 2026 issuance was heavily front-loaded with a less lucrative issuer mix, leading to guided Q3 MIS revenue growth of low single digits. Additionally, refinancing $2,328M of scheduled maturities on $7,620M of total debt at prevailing interest rates (pre-tax 5.78%) will raise annual and restrict net capacity.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-03 · Published 2026-10-03 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 4 figuresCited in Scenarios, Investor perspectives
Moody's Investors Service (MIS) provides credit ratings and monitoring for corporate, financial institution, structured finance, and public finance debt obligations. In FY2025, MIS generated $4,317M in revenue, accounting for 55.93% of consolidated top-line performance, maintaining an entrenched global ratings duopoly alongside S&P Global.
Moody's Analytics (MA) delivers enterprise risk software, credit modeling, KYC/compliance data, and economic research to banks, asset managers, insurers, and corporations. MA generated $3,611M in FY2025 revenue (46.79% of consolidated total), characterized by subscription recurring contracts, renewal rates above 93%, and steady margin expansion toward the mid-to-high 30% range.
In the Bear scenario, widening credit spreads and volatile interest rate conditions cause corporate borrowers to defer debt issuances, triggering negative operational leverage across fixed ratings analyst infrastructure. Moody's Investors Service transaction revenue falls, mimicking previous downcycles where operating income declined significantly. Simultaneously, enterprise banking client budget scrutiny slows Moody's Analytics software seat expansions and cross-selling, capping segment margins. Maturing debt over multi-year periods must be refinanced at prevailing rates above historical low coupons, increasing annual interest costs against total debt obligations. As growth decelerates, Moody's valuation multiple compresses toward peer medians, causing severe capital impairment from prevailing share levels.
Ways this thesis can break
Severe corporate debt issuance freeze and recessionary spread widening
MIS generated $4,317M in FY2025 revenue (55.93% of consolidated total). During previous issuance freezes, operating income fell over 40%. A 5% contraction in MIS revenue triggers negative operating leverage across fixed analyst infrastructure.7,8
FV impact
-4.3%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
MCO currently trades at 24.27x forward P/E while direct peer SPGI trades at 19.11x and ICE trades at 17.07x. Compression to peer median forward P/E of 19.20x represents an immediate 20.9% multiple derating.3,4
FV impact
-7.8%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Cost inflation and technology investment capping operating profitability
Consolidated operating margin was 43.42% in FY2025 and modeled to reach 44.50%. Cloud infrastructure, AI agent integration, and wage inflation could compress margins by 300 bps below base projections.5,7
FV impact
-0.8%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 24 months
Persistent stagflation and elevated risk-free rates lifting cost of capital
Multiple derating driven by investor rotation out of premium-multiple compounders as debt issuance and earnings growth normalize toward industry medians.
Complementing the rating franchise is Moody's Analytics (MA), which contributed $3,611M in FY2025 revenue. MA provides mission-critical risk scoring, enterprise compliance, and economic data integrated directly into bank IT systems and underwriting workflows. With customer renewal rates exceeding 93%, MA generates predictable, high-margin annual recurring revenue (ARR). Management has guided full-year 2026 MA segment operating margins to 34%-35% with targets reaching the mid- to high-30s by year-end 2027, further solidifying consolidated economic profitability.
Moody's earns an economic return on invested capital of 24.71%, substantially exceeding its computed WACC of 9.8184% and moderate cost of equity of 10.3426%. This 1,489 bps economic profit spread demonstrates that Moody's extracts superior economic rents from its asset-light business model across market cycles.2
9.2/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Regulatory Entrenchment and Duopoly Licensing (Intangible Assets) — Regulatory requirements (NRSRO designation) and institutional bond indentures requiring ratings from at least two major agencies establish an insurmountable barrier to entry, enabling MIS to generate $4,317M in FY2025 revenue (55.93% of consolidated total) and sustain operating margins exceeding 50% across market cycles.Wide
02Mission-Critical Software Integration and High Switching Costs — Moody's Analytics embeds proprietary credit risk models, KYC/compliance screening, and regulatory reporting tools directly into core enterprise banking workflows, driving retention rates exceeding 93% and delivering $3,611M in FY2025 recurring subscription-based revenue.Wide
03Global Financial Benchmark Network Effects — Institutional fixed-income mandates worldwide specify Moody's and S&P ratings as mandatory benchmark investment criteria, creating self-reinforcing network effects where debt issuers cannot access global institutional capital pools without ratings from the duopoly.Moderate
Corporate Bond Issuance Cyclicality and Transaction Volume Freezes
high
12-18 months
Counterbalanced by non-transaction relationship rating fees and recurring subscription revenue from Moody's Analytics ($3,611M in FY2025).8
Regulatory Reforms Diminishing NRSRO Mandates
medium
3-5 years
Institutional investor mandates, private debt covenants, and century-long default databases make substitution contractually and practically unviable for institutional asset managers.
Enterprise Software Spending Scrutiny in Banking and FinTech
low
12-24 months
MA tools are deeply integrated into mandatory regulatory compliance frameworks (CECL, Basel III, AML/KYC), making them essential non-discretionary expenses.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and at , then adjust for signed per current share.
The Base case represents the modal operating trajectory where Moody's compounds earnings through mid-single-digit debt issuance growth, ratings pricing power, and high-single-digit ARR expansion in Moody's Analytics. Consensus FY2026 EPS and FY2027 EPS expectations are met as operating margins expand from FY2025 levels through FY2030. This performance synthesizes into a Base target of $327.35. With shares trading at $441.36 (as of $441.36 (as of 2026-10-02)) relative to Fair value of $327.35, the expected return is -25.8%.1,5,7
Global debt issuance grows at double-digit rates, accelerated by hyperscaler capex pipelines and private credit expansion.5
MA operating margin expands toward targeted levels ahead of schedule on high-single-digit ARR growth.5
MCO maintains a premium forward valuation multiple, supported by authorized share repurchases.5
In the Bull scenario, corporate debt refinancing surges above expectations, driven by multi-year corporate debt maturity walls, private credit ratings demand, and massive hyperscaler debt issuance pipelines. MIS transaction revenue accelerates to double-digit growth, driving operating leverage across fixed analyst overhead. Simultaneously, enterprise adoption of AI compliance and automated risk scoring accelerates Moody's Analytics ARR, driving segment margins toward the high thirties ahead of management's timeline. Robust cash flow generation facilitates aggressive share repurchases, supporting the upper bound of intrinsic fair value at $399.89.5
Quarterly EPS and revenue meeting consensus expectations in line with seasonal issuance patterns
Meeting consensus confirms the baseline operating trajectory but leaves the stock vulnerable to valuation contraction given the substantial premium over Fair value of $327.35.
Miss
Maintain Sell; Accelerate complete portfolio liquidation of any remaining exposure; re-assess ratings transaction volumes and check whether credit spreads or corporate issuance freezes are widening.
Trigger: Quarterly EPS or revenue falling short of consensus expectations due to issuance deferrals
An earnings miss confirms the risk of negative operating leverage within ratings and deceleration in enterprise software budgets, accelerating multiple compression toward peer medians.
Moody's displays superior earnings quality characterized by robust cash flow conversion and low capital intensity. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $2,901M, exceeding GAAP net income of $2,459M. Free cash flow reached $2,575M on capital expenditures of $326M (representing low capital intensity against consolidated revenue of $7,718M). Earnings stability is enhanced by Moody's Analytics, where recurring subscription ARR generated $3,611M in FY2025 revenue. However, FY2025 stock-based compensation of $232M represents an ongoing non-cash dilution factor absorbing a portion of annual free cash flow, and ratings transaction revenues remain exposed to debt capital market issuance cycles.6,7,8
Metrics to watch into the print
01
Metric:
Global Debt Issuance Volumes and MIS Revenue Cadence
CurrentManagement upgraded full-year 2026 global issuance outlook to mid-single-digit growth but guided Q3 MIS revenue growth to low single digits due to front-loaded first-half activity.
Why it matters
MIS accounts for 55.93% of consolidated revenue ($4,317M in FY2025) and drives high operating leverage.8
02
Metric:
Moody's Analytics Segment Margin Progression
CurrentMA operating margin is guided at 34% to 35% for FY2026 with a target of reaching the mid- to high-30s by year-end 2027.
Why it matters
MA recurring subscription expansion is the cornerstone of non-cyclical margin enhancement and valuation support.
Cash flow dynamics reflect the asset-light nature of financial data and credit ratings. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $2,901M on net income of $2,459M, representing a cash conversion ratio of 117.9%. Free cash flow of $2,575M benefited from modest capex of $326M and D&A of $480M. Stock-based compensation of $232M represents an annual non-cash drag absorbing roughly 9% of FCF. Working capital dynamics are favorable due to upfront annual subscription billing in Moody's Analytics ($3,611M FY2025 revenue), supporting strong liquidity and sustained operational funding across cycles.6,7,8
Moody's capital allocation balances disciplined organic reinvestment with aggressive shareholder return. In FY2025, Moody's generated $2,901M in operating cash flow and deployed only $326M into capital expenditures (4.2% of revenue), yielding $2,575M in free cash flow. Management committed up to $3B in 2026 capital returns, representing over 130% of FCF. Diluted shares have decreased from 187.9M in FY2021 to 179.9M in FY2025. Total debt stands at $7,620M against $2,384M in cash. With $2,328M in debt maturing through 2029 ($571M in Year 1) and pre-tax cost of debt of 5.78%, capital return velocity beyond 2026 will need to align with organic FCF to maintain balance sheet strength.
Moody's asset-light business model requires minimal reinvestment (reinvestment rate projected at 8.0% to 10.0% of NOPAT), enabling the company to sustain high returns on capital. The combination of duopoly ratings pricing power and high-margin recurring software subscriptions in Moody's Analytics supports sustained economic profit compounding.
Moody's earns an ROIC of 24.71%, generating an exceptional spread of 1,489 bps above its computed WACC of 9.8184% and 1,437 bps above its moderate cost of equity of 10.3426%.
Operating cash flow reached $2,901M in FY2025 compared to GAAP net income of $2,459M, delivering a conversion rate of 117.9%.
Asset-light operations and negative working capital dynamics allow Moody's to convert over 100% of accounting profits into distributable free cash flow.
Debt Service and Refinancing Wall Against High Total Leverage
Moody's maintains $7,620M in total debt with pre-tax cost of debt of 5.78% and $2,328M due within four years.
While annual FCF of $2,575M provides ample interest coverage, refinancing low-coupon maturities at prevailing yields will elevate interest costs and constrain capital returns beyond 2026.
Moody's Corporation (MCO) trades at 24.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 20.4x compares with a peer median of 16.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: S&P Global Inc., Nasdaq Inc., Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and MSCI Inc., as of 2026-10-03.
Bear cycle
A downturn in debt capital markets triggered by rising credit default spreads or prolonged high interest rates leads corporate issuers to postpone bond financing, causing MIS transaction revenue to drop sharply as seen in FY2022 when operating income fell to $1,883M. Under this environment, bank budget contractions compress enterprise analytics ARR growth and slow cross-sell momentum.
Secular trends
Trend
Impact
Note
Corporate Debt Maturity Wall and Structured Refinancing Mandates
positive
Multi-trillion dollar global corporate debt maturity walls require refinancing over the 2026-2030 horizon, providing durable volume for MIS ratings.
AI Integration and Agentic Enterprise Risk Workflows
positive
Enterprise adoption of AI-ready compliance, entity verification, and risk models expands Moody's Analytics subscription TAM and pricing leverage.
Growth of Private Credit and Regulatory Transparency Scrutiny
positive
Expansion of private credit assets drives institutional demand for standardized risk assessment, rating transparency, and insurance regulatory compliance.
Positioning
Moody's maintains a premier duopoly position alongside S&P Global, supported by global regulatory designations, widespread benchmark indexing, and deep client integration. With FY2025 operating margin of 43.42%, Moody's profitability compares favorably with peers such as S&P Global (44.79% operating margin) and Intercontinental Exchange (52.63% operating margin), while Moody's Analytics provides recurring revenue resilience that pure-play transaction peers lack.3,7
Avoid entry; liquidate or trim existing long positions
The October 2, 2026 share price of $441.36 reflects a 34.8% premium over compositefair value of $327.35, offering an implied return of -25.8%.
$327.35 (Composite fair value midpoint)
Re-evaluate fundamentals; do not initiate without committee upgrade
At compositefair value of $327.35, risk-reward becomes balanced, but initiation remains prohibited under the Sell directive until re-underwriting occurs.
Monitor for potential re-underwriting; maintain Sell until formal reassessment
Exit tranches
Level
Action
$441.36 (October 2, 2026 share price)
Immediate sale / Full position liquidation
$450.00 - $480.00 (Near 50-day average of $481.59)
Despite generating $2,575M in FY2025 FCF and guiding up to $3B in capital returns, Moody's prioritizes share buybacks over dividends, with dividend yield below 1.0%. With $7,620M in debt facing higher coupon refinancing, income-focused investors should look elsewhere.4,5,6
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($62.53) plus discounted terminal value ($194) minus signed net debt per current share ($26.25) equals the $230 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is net cash, so subtracting it raises value.
