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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
JPM — frequently asked questions
Is JPMorgan Chase & Co. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, JPM screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 306 versus our fair value of USD 263; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 324. That implies roughly 14.1% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-08, gives JPM a fair value of USD 263 and a potential value of USD 324. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy JPM now?
Our latest published rating for JPM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Reduce. JPMorgan Chase & Co. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 306 versus fair value of USD 263; potential value is USD 324. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for JPM?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-08 documents JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is JPM's rating?
Our latest published rating for JPM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 263, the potential value of USD 324, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 306).
Bull: Higher-for-longer interest rates sustain elevated Net Interest Income (NII), while a macroeconomic soft landing spurs a massive recovery in investment banking, advisory, and capital markets fees.
Main risk
Severe Credit Cycle Reversion: A severe macroeconomic contraction leads to broad credit deterioration, spiking provisions for credit losses across consumer and commercial portfolios.
JPMorgan Chase is a best-in-class, universally diversified financial institution with a fortress balance sheet, consistent market share gains across cycles, and scale advantages that provide a structural premium over peers.
JPMorgan Chase is a best-in-class, universally diversified financial institution with a fortress balance sheet, consistent market share gains across cycles, and scale advantages that provide a structural premium over peers.
Scale advantage
Scale advantage
Switching costs
Switching costs
Cycle upside
Higher-for-longer rates supporting NII, robust capital markets activity, and benign credit environment.
House recommendation
Reduce. The current valuation embeds peak-cycle assumptions, leaving minimal margin of safety against mean-reverting credit costs or net interest margin compression. Our fair value estimate is $263.06.
Company overview
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It operates in three segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management. The company offers deposit, investment and lending products, and cash management; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, payment solutions, travel services, merchant offers, lifestyle benefits, auto loans, and leases to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, and digital and telephone banking. It also provides investment banking, market-making, financing, custody, and securities products and services; corporate strategy and structure advisory, equity and debt market capital-raising, and loan origination and syndication services; cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, clearing, and research; and fund services, liquidity and trading services, and data solutions products for large corporations, financial institutions, merchants, start-ups, small and midsized companies, local governments, municipalities, nonprofits, and commercial real estate clients. In addition, the company offers multi-asset investment management solutions in equities, fixed income, alternatives, and money market funds to institutional clients and retail investors; retirement products and services, estate planning, lending, deposits, and investment management products to high-net-worth clients; and financial transaction processing. JPMorgan Chase & Co. was founded in 1799 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
A synchronized shock of a deep recession and aggressive rate cuts would severely impact both credit costs and NII. JPM's fortress balance sheet prevents existential risk, but earnings power would materially contract.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
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4 / 10
Severe macroeconomic contraction.
Spiking credit loss provisions.
Aggressive rate cuts compress NIM.
A severe macroeconomic contraction leads to broad credit deterioration and spiking provisions for credit losses, while aggressive central bank rate cuts simultaneously compress net interest margins. Value approaches $189.
Ways this thesis can break
Severe Credit Cycle Reversion
25%· Medium
A severe macroeconomic contraction leads to broad credit deterioration, spiking provisions for credit losses across consumer and commercial portfolios.
FV impact
Drops to $189.56
Trigger
12-18 months
Aggressive NIM Compression
15%· Low
Aggressive central bank rate cuts simultaneously compress net interest margins significantly faster than the market anticipates.
FV impact
Drops to $220.00
Trigger
6-12 months
Regulatory Capital Squeeze
10%· Low
Basel III Endgame and other regulatory changes severely constrain capital return, lowering the dividend payout and reducing structural ROE.
FV impact
Drops to $240.00
Trigger
24 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
The five developments that would weaken our investment case.
Escalating credit loss provisions and elevated borrowing expenses would compress bottom-line profitability, reducing capital generation capacity and undermining return on tangible common equity.
Yield pressure on earning assets and higher funding costs could turn top-line expansion negative, impairing operating leverage and stalling bank earnings momentum.
Current:2.8% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alert if< 0.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Constrained capital efficiency and higher regulatory retention mandates would dilute per-share profitability, limiting share repurchases and dampening long-term shareholder returns.
Current:20.02 for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alert if< 16.00 over any trailing twelve-month period
Accelerating deposit migration and severe negative operating cash flow conversion would create working capital friction, highlighting liability mismatches and destabilizing core operating liquidity.
Current:-2.59 as of the report's 2026-05-08 analysis date
Alert if< -3.50 over any rolling twelve-month period
02
Switching costs — Switching costs
Wide
03Brand equity — Brand equityWide
04Network effect in payments — Network effect in paymentsWide
Higher-for-longer interest rates sustain elevated Net Interest Income (NII), while a macroeconomic soft landing spurs a massive recovery in investment banking, advisory, and capital markets fees. Terminal P/E reaches 16x.
Our base case assumes a return to normalized credit costs and a slight compression in NIM as rates stabilize. The valuation is anchored by a 13.5x terminal P/E, yielding a $263 fair value, significantly below internal valuation cross-checks.
If NII guides higher and credit benign -> hold or mild rally. If credit costs spike or NII guides down -> multiple compression to historical norms.
Warning level: < 27.0% over any two consecutive quarters. Escalating credit loss provisions and elevated borrowing expenses would compress bottom-line profitability, reducing capital generation capacity and undermining return on tangible common equity.
Warning level: < 0.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Yield pressure on earning assets and higher funding costs could turn top-line expansion negative, impairing operating leverage and stalling bank earnings momentum.
Warning level: < $170.00B across any fiscal year. Softening consumer transactions and reduced fee generation would contract total banking turnover, weakening market share leadership and depressing diversified franchise revenue.
Warning level: < 16.00 over any trailing twelve-month period. Constrained capital efficiency and higher regulatory retention mandates would dilute per-share profitability, limiting share repurchases and dampening long-term shareholder returns.
Current-2.59 as of the report's 2026-05-08 analysis date
Why it matters
Warning level: < -3.50 over any rolling twelve-month period. Accelerating deposit migration and severe negative operating cash flow conversion would create working capital friction, highlighting liability mismatches and destabilizing core operating liquidity.
