Low bear-case kill-card score (< 30)
Reports where the bear-case kill-card score is below 30: no individual kill-scenario carries a probability ≥ 30%, signalling a thin tail of catastrophic downside paths in the analyst's base view.
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Frequently asked
About this list
- What is the bear-case kill-card?
- Each analysis report includes a bear-case section with named kill-scenarios — concrete paths through which the thesis could break. Each scenario carries a probability estimate and a fair-value impact. The kill-card is the structured table of these scenarios.
- What does 'kill-card score < 30' mean?
- It means no individual kill-scenario carries a probability estimate of 30% or higher. The thesis still has tail risks, but no single high-probability path to a permanent loss has been identified.
- Is a low kill-card score the same as low risk?
- No. It captures one specific dimension: the absence of high-probability catastrophic paths. A stock can have a low kill-card score and still carry meaningful risk through cyclical exposure, capital-cycle position, or accounting fragility — surfaced in other parts of the report.
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